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Broncos at Eagles

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 12:00 PM CT · Lincoln Financial Field · Final DEN 21 – PHI 17
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN3001821
PHI377017
Team box
DEN·PHI
358
total yards
302
228
passing yards
257
130
rushing yards
45
23
first downs
16
5-16
third downs
2-11
0
turnovers
0
34:17
time of possession
25:43
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN24/3924210
Jalen HurtsPHI23/3828020
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
J.K. DobbinsDEN20791
Saquon BarkleyPHI6300
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Courtland SuttonDEN8990
DeVonta SmithPHI81140

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +14
DEN +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 14 · DEN 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 22%, PHI 78% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 6.9
Expected score
PHI 26.3 – 19.4 DEN
Expected total
45.7
BroncosThe matchupEagles
+351Our fair odds−351
19.4Expected points26.3
+0.26Power rating+1.25
24.0Points / game27.0
16.8Allowed / game22.0
354Total yards / game252
5.6Yards / play4.2
211Passing yards / game138
2−2Season record4−0
5−5Last 1010−0

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · PHI chance
Our model fair22.2%77.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos+35122%————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−35178%————
SpreadPHI by 6.9
DENDenver Broncos+6.9our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−6.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.7
Over45.7our total————
Under45.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 6.9 expected
Denver Broncos by 46 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 45 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 44 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 43 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 42 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 13 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 9 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 6%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 7%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 46 points: <1%
← DEN wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more62%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more47%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more38%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.7 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 67% completions, 228 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 65% completions, 152 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·PHI
Sep 29, 2025 vs CIN
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at TB
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
DEN·PHI
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+1.25
24.0
points / game
27.0
16.8
points allowed / game
22.0
2−2
season record
4−0
2−0
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
2−0
W1
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
10−0
354
total yards / game
252
5.6
yards / play
4.2
211
passing yards / game
138
143
rushing yards / game
114
20.2
first downs / game
17.8
1.5
turnovers / game
0.2

Rating Trend

DEN · PHI · 11 days
Denver BroncosPhiladelphia Eagles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · PHI 1−0
Nov 14, 2021at DENPHI 30 − 13

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 29, 2025vs CIN28 − 3W
Sep 21, 2025at LAC20 − 23L
Sep 14, 2025at IND28 − 29L
Sep 7, 2025vs TEN20 − 12W
Jan 12, 2025at BUF7 − 31L
Jan 5, 2025vs KC38 − 0W
Dec 28, 2024at CIN24 − 30L
Dec 19, 2024at LAC27 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs IND31 − 13W
Dec 2, 2024vs CLE41 − 32W

PHI · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Sep 28, 2025at TB31 − 25W
Sep 21, 2025vs LAR33 − 26W
Sep 14, 2025at KC20 − 17W
Sep 4, 2025vs DAL24 − 20W
Feb 9, 2025vs KC40 − 22W
Jan 26, 2025vs WSH55 − 23W
Jan 19, 2025vs LAR28 − 22W
Jan 12, 2025vs GB22 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025vs NYG20 − 13W
Dec 29, 2024vs DAL41 − 7W