bayesRatings

Lions at Bengals

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 3:25 PM CT · Paycor Stadium · Final DET 37 – CIN 24
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET7714937
CIN0302124
Team box
DET·CIN
365
total yards
322
247
passing yards
237
118
rushing yards
85
23
first downs
21
2-8
third downs
4-11
1
turnovers
3
34:21
time of possession
25:39
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET19/2325830
Jake BrowningCIN26/4025133
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
David MontgomeryDET18651
Jake BrowningCIN4310
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET81000
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN61102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +25
DET +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CIN 0 · DET 25lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 72%, CIN 28% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 10.5
Expected score
DET 34.1 – 23.6 CIN
Expected total
57.8
LionsThe matchupBengals
−259Our fair odds+259
34.1Expected points23.6
+1.25Power rating−0.19
34.2Points / game15.2
22.0Allowed / game29.8
365Total yards / game205
6.0Yards / play3.8
226Passing yards / game155
3−1Season record2−2
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CIN chance
Our model fair72.2%27.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions−25972%————
CINCincinnati Bengals+25928%————
SpreadDET by 10.5
DETDetroit Lions−10.5our margin————
CINCincinnati Bengals+10.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 57.8
Over57.8our total————
Under57.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 10.5 expected
Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 33 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 30 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 6%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%
← DET wins byCIN wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more73%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more59%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more52%
Within 3 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

57.8 expected
21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 50.566%
Total over 57.550%
Total over 64.534%
Total from 51 to 6432%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 71% completions, 235 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted
CINJake Browning · last 3 games: 64% completions, 169 yds/game, 3 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CIN
Sep 28, 2025 vs CLE
last game
Sep 29, 2025 at DEN
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
DET·CIN
+1.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
34.2
points / game
15.2
22.0
points allowed / game
29.8
3−1
season record
2−2
2−0
home record
1−0
1−1
away record
1−2
W3
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
7−3
365
total yards / game
205
6.0
yards / play
3.8
226
passing yards / game
155
139
rushing yards / game
50
20.2
first downs / game
14.0
0.5
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

DET · CIN · 11 days
Detroit LionsCincinnati Bengals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CIN 1−0
Oct 17, 2021at DETCIN 34 − 11

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Sep 28, 2025vs CLE34 − 10W
Sep 22, 2025at BAL38 − 30W
Sep 14, 2025vs CHI52 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at GB13 − 27L
Jan 18, 2025vs WSH31 − 45L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIN31 − 9W
Dec 30, 2024at SF40 − 34W
Dec 22, 2024at CHI34 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024vs BUF42 − 48L
Dec 5, 2024vs GB34 − 31W

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Sep 29, 2025at DEN3 − 28L
Sep 21, 2025at MIN10 − 48L
Sep 14, 2025vs JAX31 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025at CLE17 − 16W
Jan 4, 2025at PIT19 − 17W
Dec 28, 2024vs DEN30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs CLE24 − 6W
Dec 15, 2024at TEN37 − 27W
Dec 9, 2024at DAL27 − 20W
Dec 1, 2024vs PIT38 − 44L