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Texans at Ravens

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 12:00 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Final HOU 44 – BAL 10
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU717101044
BAL307010
Team box
HOU·BAL
417
total yards
207
250
passing yards
163
167
rushing yards
44
27
first downs
12
7-12
third downs
3-8
0
turnovers
3
36:33
time of possession
23:27
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.J. StroudHOU23/2724440
Cooper RushBAL14/2017903
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Nick ChubbHOU11611
Derrick HenryBAL15331
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Christian KirkHOU4640
Zay FlowersBAL5720

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +34
HOU +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BAL 0 · HOU 34lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 29%, BAL 71% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
BAL by 7.2
Expected score
BAL 27.9 – 20.6 HOU
Expected total
48.5
TexansThe matchupRavens
+246Our fair odds−246
20.6Expected points27.9
−0.01Power rating+0.56
16.0Points / game32.8
12.8Allowed / game33.2
289Total yards / game338
5.1Yards / play6.5
185Passing yards / game204
1−3Season record1−3
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · BAL chance
Our model fair28.9%71.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans+24629%————
BALBaltimore Ravens−24671%————
SpreadBAL by 7.2
HOUHouston Texans+7.2our margin————
BALBaltimore Ravens−7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.5
Over48.5our total————
Under48.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 7.2 expected
Houston Texans by 46 points: <1%Houston Texans by 45 points: <1%Houston Texans by 44 points: <1%Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: <1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: <1%Houston Texans by 24 points: <1%Houston Texans by 23 points: <1%Houston Texans by 22 points: <1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: <1%Houston Texans by 19 points: <1%Houston Texans by 18 points: <1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: <1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: <1%Houston Texans by 12 points: <1%Houston Texans by 11 points: <1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 9 points: <1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 1%Houston Texans by 7 points: 3%Houston Texans by 6 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 3 points: 6%Houston Texans by 2 points: 1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 7%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 43 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 44 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 45 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 46 points: <1%
← HOU wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more63%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more48%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.5 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.547%
Total over 55.530%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 67% completions, 215 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
BALCooper Rush · last 3 games: 66% completions, 164 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·BAL
Sep 28, 2025 vs TEN
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at KC
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
HOU·BAL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.56
16.0
points / game
32.8
12.8
points allowed / game
33.2
1−3
season record
1−3
1−1
home record
1−1
0−2
away record
0−2
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
6−4
289
total yards / game
338
5.1
yards / play
6.5
185
passing yards / game
204
104
rushing yards / game
134
15.8
first downs / game
18.0
1.2
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

HOU · BAL · 11 days
Houston TexansBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · BAL 3−0
Dec 25, 2024at HOUBAL 31 − 2
Jan 20, 2024at BALBAL 34 − 10post
Sep 10, 2023at BALBAL 25 − 9

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 28, 2025vs TEN26 − 0W
Sep 21, 2025at JAX10 − 17L
Sep 15, 2025vs TB19 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at LAR9 − 14L
Jan 18, 2025at KC14 − 23L
Jan 11, 2025vs LAC32 − 12W
Jan 5, 2025at TEN23 − 14W
Dec 25, 2024vs BAL2 − 31L
Dec 21, 2024at KC19 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs MIA20 − 12W

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Sep 28, 2025at KC20 − 37L
Sep 22, 2025vs DET30 − 38L
Sep 14, 2025vs CLE41 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025at BUF40 − 41L
Jan 19, 2025at BUF25 − 27L
Jan 11, 2025vs PIT28 − 14W
Jan 4, 2025vs CLE35 − 10W
Dec 25, 2024at HOU31 − 2W
Dec 21, 2024vs PIT34 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at NYG35 − 14W