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Raiders at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 12:00 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Final LV 6 – IND 40
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LV30036
IND02020040
Team box
LV·IND
296
total yards
317
190
passing yards
221
106
rushing yards
96
22
first downs
24
8-14
third downs
8-10
2
turnovers
0
33:25
time of possession
26:35
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Geno SmithLV25/3622802
Daniel JonesIND20/2921220
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ashton JeantyLV14670
Jonathan TaylorIND17663
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tre TuckerLV4620
Ashton DulinIND2550

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +37
LV +37
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 37 · LV 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LV 26%, IND 74% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 10.3
Expected score
IND 28.8 – 18.5 LV
Expected total
47.2
RaidersThe matchupColts
+286Our fair odds−286
18.5Expected points28.8
−0.64Power rating+0.11
19.2Points / game30.8
24.8Allowed / game20.8
330Total yards / game397
5.6Yards / play6.5
215Passing yards / game261
1−3Season record3−1
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · IND chance
Our model fair25.9%74.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders+28626%————
INDIndianapolis Colts−28674%————
SpreadIND by 10.3
LVLas Vegas Raiders+10.3our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts−10.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.2
Over47.2our total————
Under47.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 10.3 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 48 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 47 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 46 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 45 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 44 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 5%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 6%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 44 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 45 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 46 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 47 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 48 points: <1%
← LV wins byIND wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more71%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more56%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more48%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.2 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.566%
Total over 47.546%
Total over 54.529%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 61% completions, 195 yds/game, 5 TD, 6 INTstarted
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 71% completions, 269 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·IND
Sep 28, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at LAR
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
LV·IND
−0.64
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
19.2
points / game
30.8
24.8
points allowed / game
20.8
1−3
season record
3−1
0−2
home record
2−0
1−1
away record
1−1
L3
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
330
total yards / game
397
5.6
yards / play
6.5
215
passing yards / game
261
114
rushing yards / game
136
17.5
first downs / game
23.0
2.0
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

LV · IND · 11 days
Las Vegas RaidersIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · IND 2−1
Dec 31, 2023at INDIND 23 − 20
Nov 13, 2022at LVIND 25 − 20
Jan 2, 2022at INDLV 23 − 20

LV · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 28, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Sep 21, 2025at WSH24 − 41L
Sep 15, 2025vs LAC9 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at NE20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs LAC20 − 34L
Dec 29, 2024at NO25 − 10W
Dec 22, 2024vs JAX19 − 14W
Dec 16, 2024vs ATL9 − 15L
Dec 8, 2024at TB13 − 28L
Nov 29, 2024at KC17 − 19L

IND · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025at LAR20 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TEN41 − 20W
Sep 14, 2025vs DEN29 − 28W
Sep 7, 2025vs MIA33 − 8W
Jan 5, 2025vs JAX26 − 23W
Dec 29, 2024at NYG33 − 45L
Dec 22, 2024vs TEN38 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024at DEN13 − 31L
Dec 1, 2024at NE25 − 24W
Nov 24, 2024vs DET6 − 24L