bayesRatings

Dolphins at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 12:00 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final MIA 24 – CAR 27
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA3140724
CAR01031427
Team box
MIA·CAR
248
total yards
418
229
passing yards
179
19
rushing yards
239
15
first downs
26
5-13
third downs
5-11
0
turnovers
2
28:46
time of possession
31:14
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tua TagovailoaMIA27/3625630
Bryce YoungCAR19/3019821
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
De'Von AchaneMIA10160
Rico DowdleCAR232061
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaylen WaddleMIA61101
Tetairoa McMillanCAR6730

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +17
MIA +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 3 · MIA 17lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 54%, CAR 46% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 1.3
Expected score
MIA 24.0 – 22.7 CAR
Expected total
46.7
DolphinsThe matchupPanthers
−119Our fair odds+119
24.0Expected points22.7
−0.33Power rating−0.90
20.8Points / game18.8
29.5Allowed / game23.8
286Total yards / game289
5.4Yards / play4.5
188Passing yards / game189
1−3Season record1−3
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · CAR chance
Our model fair54.3%45.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins−11954%————
CARCarolina Panthers+11946%————
SpreadMIA by 1.3
MIAMiami Dolphins−1.3our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.7
Over46.7our total————
Under46.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Dolphins by 1.3 expected
Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 5%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 9%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 7%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%
← MIA wins byCAR wins by →
Miami Dolphins wins by 3 or more50%
Miami Dolphins wins by 7 or more31%
Miami Dolphins wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.7 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 71% completions, 213 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 63% completions, 200 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·CAR
Sep 29, 2025 vs NYJ
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at NE
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
MIA·CAR
−0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.90
20.8
points / game
18.8
29.5
points allowed / game
23.8
1−3
season record
1−3
1−1
home record
1−0
0−2
away record
0−3
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
286
total yards / game
289
5.4
yards / play
4.5
188
passing yards / game
189
98
rushing yards / game
100
16.5
first downs / game
19.2
1.2
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

MIA · CAR · 11 days
Miami DolphinsCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CAR 0−2
Oct 15, 2023at MIAMIA 42 − 21
Nov 28, 2021at MIAMIA 33 − 10

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 29, 2025vs NYJ27 − 21W
Sep 18, 2025at BUF21 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NE27 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at IND8 − 33L
Jan 5, 2025at NYJ20 − 32L
Dec 29, 2024at CLE20 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs SF29 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at HOU12 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024vs NYJ32 − 26W
Nov 28, 2024at GB17 − 30L

CAR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025at NE13 − 42L
Sep 21, 2025vs ATL30 − 0W
Sep 14, 2025at ARI22 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025at JAX10 − 26L
Jan 5, 2025at ATL44 − 38W
Dec 29, 2024at TB14 − 48L
Dec 22, 2024vs ARI36 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024vs DAL14 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at PHI16 − 22L
Dec 1, 2024vs TB23 − 26L