bayesRatings

Vikings at Browns

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 8:30 AM CT · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · neutral site · Final MIN 21 – CLE 17
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN707721
CLE737017
Team box
MIN·CLE
349
total yards
322
252
passing yards
182
97
rushing yards
140
20
first downs
17
3-9
third downs
3-15
2
turnovers
0
29:31
time of possession
30:29
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Carson WentzMIN25/3423610
Dillon GabrielCLE19/3319020
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jordan MasonMIN13521
Quinshon JudkinsCLE231100
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Justin JeffersonMIN71230
David NjokuCLE6671

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +7
MIN +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 7 · MIN 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 74%, CLE 26% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 12.1
Expected score
MIN 25.9 – 13.8 CLE
Expected total
39.8
VikingsThe matchupBrowns
−290Our fair odds+290
25.9Expected points13.8
+0.37Power rating−0.79
25.5Points / game14.0
20.0Allowed / game25.5
294Total yards / game280
5.2Yards / play4.2
185Passing yards / game195
2−2Season record1−3
6−4Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair74.4%25.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings−29074%————
CLECleveland Browns+29026%————
SpreadMIN by 12.1
MINMinnesota Vikings−12.1our margin————
CLECleveland Browns+12.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.8
Over39.8our total————
Under39.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 12.1 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 1%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%
← MIN wins byCLE wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more75%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more63%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more57%
Within 3 points either way14%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.8 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.570%
Total over 39.549%
Total over 46.529%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINCarson Wentz · last 3 games: 65% completions, 207 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
CLEDillon Gabriel · last 2 games: 75% completions, 10 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CLE
Sep 28, 2025 at PIT
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at DET
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
MIN·CLE
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.79
25.5
points / game
14.0
20.0
points allowed / game
25.5
2−2
season record
1−3
1−1
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
0−2
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
1−9
294
total yards / game
280
5.2
yards / play
4.2
185
passing yards / game
195
109
rushing yards / game
85
17.2
first downs / game
17.5
1.8
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

MIN · CLE · 11 days
Minnesota VikingsCleveland Browns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CLE 1−0
Oct 3, 2021at MINCLE 14 − 7

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025at PIT21 − 24L
Sep 21, 2025vs CIN48 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025vs ATL6 − 22L
Sep 8, 2025at CHI27 − 24W
Jan 13, 2025at LAR9 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at DET9 − 31L
Dec 29, 2024vs GB27 − 25W
Dec 22, 2024at SEA27 − 24W
Dec 16, 2024vs CHI30 − 12W
Dec 8, 2024vs ATL42 − 21W

CLE · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025at DET10 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs GB13 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at BAL17 − 41L
Sep 7, 2025vs CIN16 − 17L
Jan 4, 2025at BAL10 − 35L
Dec 29, 2024vs MIA3 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at CIN6 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024vs KC7 − 21L
Dec 8, 2024at PIT14 − 27L
Dec 2, 2024at DEN32 − 41L