bayesRatings

Patriots at Bills

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 7:20 PM CT · Highmark Stadium (Old) · Final NE 23 – BUF 20
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE3371023
BUF0371020
Team box
NE·BUF
338
total yards
363
267
passing yards
245
71
rushing yards
118
21
first downs
25
3-9
third downs
5-9
1
turnovers
3
25:29
time of possession
34:31
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE22/3027300
Josh AllenBUF22/3125321
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
TreVeyon HendersonNE6240
Josh AllenBUF9530
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Stefon DiggsNE101460
Dalton KincaidBUF61080

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +10
NE +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 4 · NE 10lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 15%, BUF 85% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 14.7
Expected score
BUF 32.7 – 18.0 NE
Expected total
50.7
PatriotsThe matchupBills
+577Our fair odds−577
18.0Expected points32.7
−0.52Power rating+1.01
25.5Points / game33.2
20.2Allowed / game22.5
336Total yards / game404
5.7Yards / play6.2
235Passing yards / game240
2−2Season record4−0
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · BUF chance
Our model fair14.8%85.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots+57715%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−57785%————
SpreadBUF by 14.7
NENew England Patriots+14.7our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−14.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.7
Over50.7our total————
Under50.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 14.7 expected
New England Patriots by 49 points: <1%New England Patriots by 48 points: <1%New England Patriots by 47 points: <1%New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: <1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: <1%New England Patriots by 24 points: <1%New England Patriots by 23 points: <1%New England Patriots by 22 points: <1%New England Patriots by 21 points: <1%New England Patriots by 20 points: <1%New England Patriots by 19 points: <1%New England Patriots by 18 points: <1%New England Patriots by 17 points: <1%New England Patriots by 16 points: <1%New England Patriots by 15 points: <1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 1%New England Patriots by 13 points: <1%New England Patriots by 12 points: <1%New England Patriots by 11 points: <1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 1%New England Patriots by 9 points: <1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 1%New England Patriots by 7 points: 1%New England Patriots by 6 points: 1%New England Patriots by 5 points: 1%New England Patriots by 4 points: 1%New England Patriots by 3 points: 4%New England Patriots by 2 points: 1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 1%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 6%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 42 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 43 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 44 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 45 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 46 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 47 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 48 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 49 points: <1%
← NE wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more81%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more68%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more60%
Within 3 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.7 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.567%
Total over 50.548%
Total over 57.531%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 79% completions, 234 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 69% completions, 190 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·BUF
Sep 28, 2025 vs CAR
last game
Sep 28, 2025 vs NO
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
NE·BUF
−0.52
rating (0 = average)
+1.01
25.5
points / game
33.2
20.2
points allowed / game
22.5
2−2
season record
4−0
1−2
home record
3−0
1−0
away record
1−0
W1
streak
W4
3−7
last 10
8−2
336
total yards / game
404
5.7
yards / play
6.2
235
passing yards / game
240
101
rushing yards / game
164
19.5
first downs / game
24.2
1.5
turnovers / game
0.2

Rating Trend

NE · BUF · 11 days
New England PatriotsBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · BUF 6−3
Jan 5, 2025at NENE 23 − 16
Dec 22, 2024at BUFBUF 24 − 21
Dec 31, 2023at BUFBUF 27 − 21
Oct 22, 2023at NENE 29 − 25
Jan 8, 2023at BUFBUF 35 − 23
Dec 1, 2022at NEBUF 24 − 10
Jan 15, 2022at BUFBUF 47 − 17post
Dec 26, 2021at NEBUF 33 − 21
Dec 6, 2021at BUFNE 14 − 10

NE · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 28, 2025vs CAR42 − 13W
Sep 21, 2025vs PIT14 − 21L
Sep 14, 2025at MIA33 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025vs LV13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs BUF23 − 16W
Dec 28, 2024vs LAC7 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at BUF21 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024at ARI17 − 30L
Dec 1, 2024vs IND24 − 25L
Nov 24, 2024at MIA15 − 34L

BUF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Sep 28, 2025vs NO31 − 19W
Sep 18, 2025vs MIA31 − 21W
Sep 14, 2025at NYJ30 − 10W
Sep 7, 2025vs BAL41 − 40W
Jan 26, 2025at KC29 − 32L
Jan 19, 2025vs BAL27 − 25W
Jan 12, 2025vs DEN31 − 7W
Jan 5, 2025at NE16 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024vs NYJ40 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024vs NE24 − 21W