bayesRatings

Giants at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 12:00 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · Final NYG 14 – NO 26
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYG770014
NO3133726
Team box
NYG·NO
335
total yards
332
199
passing yards
244
136
rushing yards
88
23
first downs
18
3-10
third downs
7-15
5
turnovers
0
31:50
time of possession
28:10
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jaxson DartNYG26/4020222
Spencer RattlerNO21/3122510
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Cam SkatteboNYG15590
Kendre MillerNO10410
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Daniel BellingerNYG4520
Rashid ShaheedNO41141

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +12
NYG +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 12 · NYG 11lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYG 41%, NO 59% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
NO by 4.3
Expected score
NO 22.2 – 17.9 NYG
Expected total
40.1
GiantsThe matchupSaints
+142Our fair odds−142
17.9Expected points22.2
−0.78Power rating−0.78
18.2Points / game16.5
25.2Allowed / game30.2
317Total yards / game301
4.9Yards / play4.5
205Passing yards / game177
1−3Season record0−4
2−8Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYG chance · NO chance
Our model fair41.3%58.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYGNew York Giants+14241%————
NONew Orleans Saints−14259%————
SpreadNO by 4.3
NYGNew York Giants+4.3our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.1
Over40.1our total————
Under40.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Saints by 4.3 expected
New York Giants by 44 points: <1%New York Giants by 43 points: <1%New York Giants by 42 points: <1%New York Giants by 41 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: 1%New York Giants by 23 points: 1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 21 points: 1%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 17 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: <1%New York Giants by 14 points: 2%New York Giants by 13 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 11 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 2%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 8 points: 2%New York Giants by 7 points: 4%New York Giants by 6 points: 3%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 4 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 7%New York Giants by 2 points: 2%New York Giants by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%
← NYG wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Saints wins by 3 or more55%
New Orleans Saints wins by 7 or more39%
New Orleans Saints wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.1 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.568%
Total over 40.547%
Total over 47.528%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYGJaxson Dart · last 1 game: 65% completions, 111 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted
NOSpencer Rattler · last 3 games: 71% completions, 184 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYG·NO
Sep 28, 2025 vs LAC
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at BUF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
NYG·NO
−0.78
rating (0 = average)
−0.78
18.2
points / game
16.5
25.2
points allowed / game
30.2
1−3
season record
0−4
1−1
home record
0−2
0−2
away record
0−2
W1
streak
L4
2−8
last 10
1−9
317
total yards / game
301
4.9
yards / play
4.5
205
passing yards / game
177
112
rushing yards / game
124
19.5
first downs / game
21.2
0.8
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

NYG · NO · 11 days
New York GiantsNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · NO 2−1
Dec 8, 2024at NYGNO 14 − 11
Dec 17, 2023at NONO 24 − 6
Oct 3, 2021at NONYG 27 − 21

NYG · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Sep 28, 2025vs LAC21 − 18W
Sep 21, 2025vs KC9 − 22L
Sep 14, 2025at DAL37 − 40L
Sep 7, 2025at WSH6 − 21L
Jan 5, 2025at PHI13 − 20L
Dec 29, 2024vs IND45 − 33W
Dec 22, 2024at ATL7 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs BAL14 − 35L
Dec 8, 2024vs NO11 − 14L
Nov 28, 2024at DAL20 − 27L

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Sep 28, 2025at BUF19 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025at SEA13 − 44L
Sep 14, 2025vs SF21 − 26L
Sep 7, 2025vs ARI13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025at TB19 − 27L
Dec 29, 2024vs LV10 − 25L
Dec 23, 2024at GB0 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs WSH19 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024at NYG14 − 11W
Dec 1, 2024vs LAR14 − 21L