bayesRatings

Buccaneers at Seahawks

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 3:05 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final TB 38 – SEA 35
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB310151038
SEA07141435
Team box
TB·SEA
426
total yards
463
370
passing yards
341
56
rushing yards
122
25
first downs
27
7-11
third downs
6-9
0
turnovers
2
33:12
time of possession
26:48
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Baker MayfieldTB29/3337920
Sam DarnoldSEA28/3434141
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rachaad WhiteTB14412
Kenneth Walker IIISEA10860
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Emeka EgbukaTB71631
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA81321

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +13
TB +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 7 · TB 13lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 40%, SEA 60% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 3.1
Expected score
SEA 24.5 – 21.4 TB
Expected total
45.9
BuccaneersThe matchupSeahawks
+153Our fair odds−153
21.4Expected points24.5
+0.36Power rating+0.43
24.2Points / game27.8
24.2Allowed / game16.8
336Total yards / game332
5.1Yards / play5.7
212Passing yards / game222
3−1Season record3−1
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · SEA chance
Our model fair39.5%60.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+15340%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−15360%————
SpreadSEA by 3.1
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+3.1our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.9
Over45.9our total————
Under45.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 3.1 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 8%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%
← TB wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more52%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more36%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.9 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 62% completions, 246 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 70% completions, 252 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·SEA
Sep 28, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Sep 25, 2025 at ARI
6 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
TB·SEA
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
24.2
points / game
27.8
24.2
points allowed / game
16.8
3−1
season record
3−1
1−1
home record
1−1
2−0
away record
2−0
L1
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
7−3
336
total yards / game
332
5.1
yards / play
5.7
212
passing yards / game
222
124
rushing yards / game
111
19.5
first downs / game
19.2
0.5
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

TB · SEA · 11 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · SEA 0−1
Nov 13, 2022at TBTB 21 − 16

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025vs PHI25 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 27W
Sep 15, 2025at HOU20 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025at ATL23 − 20W
Jan 12, 2025vs WSH20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs NO27 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs CAR48 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024at DAL24 − 26L
Dec 15, 2024at LAC40 − 17W
Dec 8, 2024vs LV28 − 13W

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Sep 25, 2025at ARI23 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025vs NO44 − 13W
Sep 14, 2025at PIT31 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025vs SF13 − 17L
Jan 5, 2025at LAR30 − 25W
Dec 26, 2024at CHI6 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs MIN24 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs GB13 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at ARI30 − 18W
Dec 1, 2024at NYJ26 − 21W