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Titans at Cardinals

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 3:05 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · Final TEN 22 – ARI 21
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TEN3301622
ARI1470021
Team box
TEN·ARI
327
total yards
360
249
passing yards
192
78
rushing yards
168
20
first downs
16
5-15
third downs
7-16
2
turnovers
3
27:20
time of possession
32:40
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Cam WardTEN21/3926501
Kyler MurrayARI23/3122000
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tony PollardTEN14671
Emari DemercadoARI3810
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Calvin RidleyTEN51310
Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI4980

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +18
TEN +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ARI 18 · TEN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEN 18%, ARI 82% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
ARI by 15.0
Expected score
ARI 28.1 – 13.1 TEN
Expected total
41.3
TitansThe matchupCardinals
+463Our fair odds−463
13.1Expected points28.1
−1.36Power rating−0.06
12.8Points / game20.5
30.0Allowed / game18.5
210Total yards / game270
3.6Yards / play4.7
124Passing yards / game165
0−4Season record2−2
0−10Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEN chance · ARI chance
Our model fair17.8%82.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TENTennessee Titans+46318%————
ARIArizona Cardinals−46382%————
SpreadARI by 15.0
TENTennessee Titans+15our margin————
ARIArizona Cardinals−15our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.3
Over41.3our total————
Under41.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Cardinals by 15.0 expected
Tennessee Titans by 49 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 48 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 47 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 46 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 45 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 44 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 43 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 42 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 41 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 4%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 6%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 5%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 43 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 44 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 45 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 46 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 47 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 48 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 49 points: <1%
← TEN wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Cardinals wins by 3 or more82%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 7 or more69%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 10 or more61%
Within 3 points either way15%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.3 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.568%
Total over 41.547%
Total over 48.528%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 54% completions, 167 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
ARIKyler Murray · last 3 games: 65% completions, 193 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEN·ARI
Sep 28, 2025 at HOU
last game
Sep 25, 2025 vs SEA
6 days
days of rest
9 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
TEN·ARI
−1.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
12.8
points / game
20.5
30.0
points allowed / game
18.5
0−4
season record
2−2
0−2
home record
1−1
0−2
away record
1−1
L4
streak
L2
0−10
last 10
4−6
210
total yards / game
270
3.6
yards / play
4.7
124
passing yards / game
165
87
rushing yards / game
106
14.0
first downs / game
17.2
1.2
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

TEN · ARI · 11 days
Tennessee TitansArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · ARI 1−0
Sep 12, 2021at TENARI 38 − 13

TEN · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Sep 28, 2025at HOU0 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs IND20 − 41L
Sep 14, 2025vs LAR19 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at DEN12 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs HOU14 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at JAX13 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at IND30 − 38L
Dec 15, 2024vs CIN27 − 37L
Dec 8, 2024vs JAX6 − 10L
Dec 1, 2024at WSH19 − 42L

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 25, 2025vs SEA20 − 23L
Sep 21, 2025at SF15 − 16L
Sep 14, 2025vs CAR27 − 22W
Sep 7, 2025at NO20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs SF47 − 24W
Dec 28, 2024at LAR9 − 13L
Dec 22, 2024at CAR30 − 36L
Dec 15, 2024vs NE30 − 17W
Dec 8, 2024vs SEA18 − 30L
Dec 1, 2024at MIN22 − 23L