bayesRatings

Commanders at Chargers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 3:25 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final WSH 27 – LAC 10
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH01010727
LAC1000010
Team box
WSH·LAC
389
total yards
336
226
passing yards
181
163
rushing yards
155
22
first downs
18
2-7
third downs
9-16
1
turnovers
2
25:41
time of possession
34:19
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jayden DanielsWSH15/2623110
Justin HerbertLAC22/2916611
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH141112
Justin HerbertLAC4600
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.WSH8961
Keenan AllenLAC5580

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +17
WSH +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 10 · WSH 17lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 39%, LAC 61% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 3.8
Expected score
LAC 24.8 – 21.1 WSH
Expected total
45.9
CommandersThe matchupChargers
+157Our fair odds−157
21.1Expected points24.8
+0.19Power rating+0.28
26.8Points / game22.0
22.8Allowed / game17.8
339Total yards / game356
5.8Yards / play5.7
184Passing yards / game249
2−2Season record3−1
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · LAC chance
Our model fair38.9%61.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders+15739%————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−15761%————
SpreadLAC by 3.8
WSHWashington Commanders+3.8our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−3.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.9
Over45.9our total————
Under45.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 3.8 expected
Washington Commanders by 43 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 42 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 41 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 13 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 8%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%
← WSH wins byLAC wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more54%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more38%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more30%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.9 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 60% completions, 229 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 61% completions, 248 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·LAC
Sep 28, 2025 at ATL
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at NYG
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
WSH·LAC
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
26.8
points / game
22.0
22.8
points allowed / game
17.8
2−2
season record
3−1
2−0
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
1−1
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
339
total yards / game
356
5.8
yards / play
5.7
184
passing yards / game
249
155
rushing yards / game
107
18.5
first downs / game
20.8
0.5
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

WSH · LAC · 11 days
Washington CommandersLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · LAC 1−0
Sep 12, 2021at WSHLAC 20 − 16

WSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025at ATL27 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs LV41 − 24W
Sep 11, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025vs NYG21 − 6W
Jan 26, 2025at PHI23 − 55L
Jan 18, 2025at DET45 − 31W
Jan 12, 2025at TB23 − 20W
Jan 5, 2025at DAL23 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs ATL30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs PHI36 − 33W

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025at NYG18 − 21L
Sep 21, 2025vs DEN23 − 20W
Sep 15, 2025at LV20 − 9W
Sep 5, 2025vs KC27 − 21W
Jan 11, 2025at HOU12 − 32L
Jan 5, 2025at LV34 − 20W
Dec 28, 2024at NE40 − 7W
Dec 19, 2024vs DEN34 − 27W
Dec 15, 2024vs TB17 − 40L
Dec 8, 2024at KC17 − 19L