bayesRatings

Chiefs at Jaguars

NFL · Monday, Oct 6 · 7:15 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · Final KC 28 – JAX 31
← NFL / Oct 6, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
KC7701428
JAX07141031
Team box
KC·JAX
476
total yards
319
318
passing yards
210
158
rushing yards
109
26
first downs
21
5-9
third downs
5-9
1
turnovers
2
31:59
time of possession
28:01
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Patrick MahomesKC29/4131811
Trevor LawrenceJAX18/2522111
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Patrick MahomesKC6601
Trevor LawrenceJAX10542
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tyquan ThorntonKC3900
Brian Thomas Jr.JAX4800

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +14
KC +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 7 · KC 14lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 60%, JAX 40% · Updated Oct 6, 2025

Expected margin
KC by 2.5
Expected score
KC 21.2 – 18.7 JAX
Expected total
39.9
ChiefsThe matchupJaguars
−147Our fair odds+147
21.2Expected points18.7
+0.63Power rating−0.18
24.2Points / game24.0
19.0Allowed / game18.0
332Total yards / game348
5.3Yards / play5.3
222Passing yards / game204
2−2Season record3−1
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · JAX chance
Our model fair59.5%40.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs−14760%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+14740%————
SpreadKC by 2.5
KCKansas City Chiefs−2.5our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.9
Over39.9our total————
Under39.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 2.5 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 9%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%
← KC wins byJAX wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more53%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more35%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.9 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.570%
Total over 39.550%
Total over 46.529%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 61% completions, 227 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 58% completions, 222 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·JAX
Sep 28, 2025 vs BAL
last game
Sep 28, 2025 at SF
7 days
days of rest
7 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
KC·JAX
+0.63
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
24.2
points / game
24.0
19.0
points allowed / game
18.0
2−2
season record
3−1
1−1
home record
2−0
1−1
away record
1−1
W2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
332
total yards / game
348
5.3
yards / play
5.3
222
passing yards / game
204
110
rushing yards / game
144
20.2
first downs / game
18.8
0.2
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

KC · JAX · 12 days
Kansas City ChiefsJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · JAX 0−3
Sep 17, 2023at JAXKC 17 − 9
Jan 21, 2023at KCKC 27 − 20post
Nov 13, 2022at KCKC 27 − 17

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL37 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at NYG22 − 9W
Sep 14, 2025vs PHI17 − 20L
Sep 5, 2025at LAC21 − 27L
Feb 9, 2025at PHI22 − 40L
Jan 26, 2025vs BUF32 − 29W
Jan 18, 2025vs HOU23 − 14W
Jan 5, 2025at DEN0 − 38L
Dec 25, 2024at PIT29 − 10W
Dec 21, 2024vs HOU27 − 19W

JAX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 28, 2025at SF26 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025vs HOU17 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at CIN27 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025vs CAR26 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025at IND23 − 26L
Dec 29, 2024vs TEN20 − 13W
Dec 22, 2024at LV14 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024vs NYJ25 − 32L
Dec 8, 2024at TEN10 − 6W
Dec 1, 2024vs HOU20 − 23L