bayesRatings

Devils at Flyers

NHL · Saturday, Nov 22 · 6:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final NJ 3 – PHI 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NJ1113
PHI4116
Team box
NJ·PHI
35
shots
29
1 of 2
power play
0 of 4
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
28
hits
23
4
blocked shots
10
12
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jake AllenNJ2923.793
Dan VladarPHI3532.914

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +4
NJ +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: PHI 4 · NJ 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NJ 51%, PHI 49% · Updated Nov 22, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NJ 3.1 – 2.8 PHI
Expected total
5.9
DevilsThe matchupFlyers
−103Our fair odds+103
3.1Expected goals2.8
+0.07Power rating−0.19
3.1Goals / game2.8
2.9Allowed / game2.8
29.8Shots / game24.9
49.5Faceoff %47.5
19.6Hits / game21.9
13−7Season record10−9
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NJ chance · PHI chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NJNew Jersey Devils−10351%————
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+10349%————
Spreadabout even
NJNew Jersey Devils−0.3our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 2%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 7%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 13%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 11%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 17%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 26%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 8%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 9%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 4%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 1%Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%
← NJ wins byPHI wins by →
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more34%
New Jersey Devils wins by 3 or more23%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NJJake Allen G · last 5 starts: .917 save %, 2.35 GAAstarted
PHIDan Vladar G · last 5 starts: .894 save %, 2.71 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NJ·PHI
Nov 20, 2025 at FLA
last game
Nov 20, 2025 vs STL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
NJ·PHI
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
3.1
goals / game
2.8
2.9
goals allowed / game
2.8
13−7
season record
10−9
7−1
home record
7−5
6−6
away record
3−4
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
29.8
shots / game
24.9
49.5
faceoff %
47.5
19.6
hits / game
21.9
16.8
blocked shots / game
14.5
5.0
takeaways / game
4.2
15.7
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

NJ · PHI · 40 days
New Jersey DevilsPhiladelphia Flyers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
Mar 9, 2025at PHINJ 3 − 1
Jan 29, 2025at NJNJ 5 − 0
Jan 27, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 2
Jan 18, 2025at NJPHI 3 − 1
Apr 13, 2024at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Feb 17, 2024at NJNJ 6 − 3
Dec 19, 2023at NJPHI 3 − 2 OT
Nov 30, 2023at PHINJ 4 − 3 OT
Feb 25, 2023at NJNJ 7 − 0
Dec 15, 2022at NJPHI 2 − 1

NJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 20, 2025at FLA0 − 1L
Nov 18, 2025at TB1 − 5L
Nov 15, 2025at WSH3 − 2W
Nov 12, 2025at CHI4 − 3W
Nov 10, 2025vs NYI2 − 3L
Nov 8, 2025vs PIT2 − 1W
Nov 6, 2025vs MTL4 − 3W
Nov 2, 2025at ANA1 − 4L
Nov 1, 2025at LA4 − 1W
Oct 30, 2025at SJ2 − 5L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 20, 2025vs STL3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025at DAL1 − 5L
Nov 14, 2025at STL6 − 5W
Nov 12, 2025vs EDM1 − 2L
Nov 8, 2025vs OTT2 − 3L
Nov 6, 2025at NSH3 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025at MTL5 − 4W
Nov 2, 2025vs CGY1 − 2L
Nov 1, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025vs NSH4 − 1W