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Golden Knights at Penguins

NHL · Tuesday, Nov 3 · 6:00 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 3

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
VGK 3.5 – 3.3 PIT
Expected total
6.8
Golden KnightsThe matchupPenguins
−113Our fair odds+113
3.5Expected goals3.3
+0.21Power rating−0.02
3.6Goals / game3.3
2.8Allowed / game3.4
29.8Shots / game28.0
50.6Faceoff %45.1
21.0Hits / game11.5
9−5Season record5−8
6−4Last 103−7
Alex Pietrangelo D · Kai Uchacz C
Parker Wotherspoon D · Victor Olofsson LWOutJustin Brazeau RW · Bryan Rust RW
Elmer Soderblom LW · Ryan Graves D
Trevor van Riemsdyk D

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VGK chance · PIT chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshi54.7%52.7%
Polymarket US53.7%51.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:35 AM CTPolymarket US4:35 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VGKVegas Golden Knights−11353%−12154.7%−11653.7%——
PITPittsburgh Penguins+11347%−11252.7%−10751.7%——
Spreadabout even
VGKVegas Golden Knights−0.3our margin—−1.5 −10751.7%——
PITPittsburgh Penguins+0.3our margin—+1.5 −96790.6%——
Totalwe expect 6.8
Over6.8our total—o7.5 +10548.7%——
Under6.8our total—u7.5 −204195.3%——

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Vegas Golden Knights by 6 goals: 1%Vegas Golden Knights by 5 goals: 3%Vegas Golden Knights by 4 goals: 7%Vegas Golden Knights by 3 goals: 13%Vegas Golden Knights by 2 goals: 10%Vegas Golden Knights by 1 goal: 19%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 21%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 9%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 10%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 5%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 2%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%
← VGK wins byPIT wins by →
Vegas Golden Knights wins by 2 or more34%
Vegas Golden Knights wins by 3 or more24%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.8 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 6.554%
Total over 7.535%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
VGKAdin Hill G · last 5 starts: .894 save %, 2.76 GAAexpected
PITArturs Silovs G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 3.19 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VGK·PIT
Oct 30 vs NJ
last game
Oct 29 vs UTAH
3 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Vegas Golden Knights
VGKCarter Hart G · undisclosedDay-to-day
VGKAlex Pietrangelo DIR
VGKKai Uchacz CIR
VGKParker Wotherspoon D · upper body, back about Nov 8IR
VGKVictor Olofsson LWIR
Pittsburgh Penguins
PITJustin Brazeau RW · lower body, back about Nov 3Out
PITBryan Rust RW · lower body, back about Dec 5IR
PITElmer Soderblom LW · upper body, back about Nov 7IR
PITRyan Graves D · kneeIR
PITTrevor van Riemsdyk D · lower bodyIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
VGK·PIT
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.6
goals / game
3.3
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.4
9−5
season record
5−8
6−2
home record
4−2
3−3
away record
1−6
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
29.8
shots / game
28.0
50.6
faceoff %
45.1
21.0
hits / game
11.5
14.0
blocked shots / game
13.2
4.1
takeaways / game
4.2
17.9
giveaways / game
16.8

Rating Trend

VGK · PIT · 31 days
Vegas Golden KnightsPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Oct 17at VGKVGK 6 − 2
Mar 12at VGKVGK 6 − 2
Mar 1at PITPIT 5 − 0
Mar 11, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 2 OT
Mar 7, 2025at VGKVGK 4 − 0
Jan 20, 2024at VGKVGK 3 − 2
Nov 19, 2023at PITPIT 3 − 0
Jan 5, 2023at VGKVGK 5 − 2
Dec 1, 2022at PITPIT 4 − 3
Mar 11, 2022at PITPIT 5 − 2

VGK · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 27vs OTT4 − 1W
Oct 24at CBJ1 − 2L
Oct 22at STL2 − 6L
Oct 20vs TB2 − 6L
Oct 17vs PIT6 − 2W
Oct 15vs CGY6 − 2W
Oct 13at NSH5 − 2W
Oct 12at MIN2 − 4L
Oct 10vs LA2 − 1W
Oct 8vs TOR4 − 3W

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 29vs UTAH3 − 4L
Oct 24vs NSH3 − 2W
Oct 22vs FLA4 − 0W
Oct 19at UTAH4 − 5L
Oct 17at VGK2 − 6L
Oct 16at COL2 − 5L
Oct 13at CHI3 − 5L
Oct 10vs DAL2 − 1W
Oct 9at CBJ2 − 3L
Oct 7at WSH3 − 5L