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Ducks at Oilers

NHL · Thursday, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Rogers Place · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 5

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
EDM by 0.7
Expected score
EDM 4.2 – 3.4 ANA
Expected total
7.6
DucksThe matchupOilers
+161Our fair odds−161
3.4Expected goals4.2
−0.16Power rating+0.13
3.3Goals / game4.3
3.8Allowed / game3.3
24.4Shots / game26.2
47.2Faceoff %49.4
25.8Hits / game26.5
5−8Season record9−4
3−7Last 107−3
Ian Moore D · Pavel Mintyukov D
Ryan Poehling C · Troy Terry RWOutAlec Regula D · Devon Levi G
Frederik Andersen G · Matt Savoie C
Mattias Janmark C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · EDM chance
Our model fair38.3%61.7%
Kalshi41.7%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi5:13 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+16138%+14041.7%———
EDMEdmonton Oilers−16162%−19966.6%———
SpreadEDM by 0.7
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.7our margin————
EDMEdmonton Oilers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Edmonton Oilers by 0.7 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 16%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 21%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 11%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 15%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 9%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 4%Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: 1%Edmonton Oilers by 7 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byEDM wins by →
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more41%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 3 or more30%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.6 expected
2 goals: 1%3 goals: 5%4 goals: 5%5 goals: 14%6 goals: 10%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 15%10 goals: 6%11 goals: 8%12 goals: 3%13 goals: 3%14 goals: 1%15 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 8.537%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .864 save %, 4.00 GAAexpected
EDMTristan Jarry G · last 5 starts: .916 save %, 2.36 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·EDM
Oct 29 vs BUF
last game
Oct 28 vs CGY
6 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Anaheim Ducks
ANAIan Moore D · lower body, back about Nov 8IR
ANAPavel Mintyukov D · lower bodyIR
ANARyan Poehling C · lower body, back about Nov 25IR
ANATroy Terry RW · hip surgery, back about Nov 21IR
Edmonton Oilers
EDMAlec Regula D · undisclosedIR
EDMDevon Levi G · undisclosed, back about Nov 9IR
EDMFrederik Andersen G · knee, back about Dec 30IR
EDMMatt Savoie C · lower body, back about Nov 24IR
EDMMattias Janmark C · undisclosed surgeryIR
EDMZach Hyman LW · neckIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
ANA·EDM
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
3.3
goals / game
4.3
3.8
goals allowed / game
3.3
5−8
season record
9−4
1−5
home record
4−4
4−3
away record
5−0
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
7−3
24.4
shots / game
26.2
47.2
faceoff %
49.4
25.8
hits / game
26.5
15.3
blocked shots / game
14.0
3.4
takeaways / game
3.5
15.3
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

ANA · EDM · 31 days
Anaheim DucksEdmonton Oilers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · EDM 5−5
Oct 7at ANAEDM 5 − 2
Apr 30at ANAANA 5 − 2post
Apr 28at EDMEDM 4 − 1post
Apr 26at ANAANA 4 − 3 OTpost
Apr 24at ANAANA 6 − 4post
Apr 22at EDMANA 6 − 4post
Apr 20at EDMEDM 4 − 3post
Mar 28at EDMEDM 4 − 2
Feb 25at ANAANA 6 − 5
Jan 26at EDMEDM 7 − 4

ANA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 29vs BUF6 − 7L
Oct 27vs VAN5 − 6L
Oct 24at PHI5 − 4W
Oct 22at NJ1 − 4L
Oct 20at NYI2 − 3L
Oct 19at NYR2 − 5L
Oct 16vs BOS2 − 4L
Oct 13vs CGY2 − 4L
Oct 10at CGY4 − 2W
Oct 9at WPG5 − 1W

EDM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 28vs CGY4 − 0W
Oct 26vs DET3 − 4L
Oct 24vs TOR2 − 7L
Oct 22vs CAR6 − 5W
Oct 20vs MIN4 − 3W
Oct 17at UTAH6 − 2W
Oct 15vs UTAH2 − 4L
Oct 13at LA4 − 1W
Oct 10at SJ3 − 1W
Oct 7at ANA5 − 2W