bayesRatings

Oilers at Ducks

NHL · Friday, Apr 24 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final EDM 4 – ANA 6
← NHL / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
EDM1214
ANA2146
Team box
EDM·ANA
25
shots
39
1 of 2
power play
1 of 3
49.3
faceoff %
50.7
31
hits
33
12
blocked shots
9
13
penalty minutes
11
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Mikael GranlundANA132
Jackson LaCombeANA114
Leo CarlssonANA114
Connor McDavidEDM113
Evan BouchardEDM022
Leon DraisaitlEDM021
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Connor IngramEDM3832.842
Lukas DostalANA2521.840

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
EDM +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 3 · EDM 1lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was EDM 53%, ANA 47% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
EDM by 0.5
Expected score
EDM 3.8 – 3.3 ANA
Expected total
7.1
OilersThe matchupDucks
−114Our fair odds+114
3.8Expected goals3.3
+0.11Power rating−0.17
3.4Goals / game3.3
3.3Allowed / game3.5
29.7Shots / game30.8
52.7Faceoff %47.8
18.8Hits / game21.0
41−41 · 1−1 postSeason record43−39 · 1−1 post
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
EDM chance · ANA chance
Our model fair53.2%46.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
EDMEdmonton Oilers−11453%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+11447%————
SpreadEDM by 0.5
EDMEdmonton Oilers−0.5our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.1
Over7.1our total————
Under7.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Edmonton Oilers by 0.5 expected
Edmonton Oilers by 7 goals: <1%Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: 1%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 3%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 8%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 14%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 11%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 16%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 23%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%
← EDM wins byANA wins by →
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more39%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 3 or more28%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.1 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 16%6 goals: 10%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 6%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: 1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.559%
Total over 7.539%
Total over 8.530%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
EDMConnor Ingram G · last 5 starts: .908 save %, 2.19 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .882 save %, 3.21 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
EDM·ANA
Apr 22 vs ANA
last game
Apr 22 at EDM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
EDM·ANA
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
3.4
goals / game
3.3
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.5
41−41 · 1−1 post
season record
43−39 · 1−1 post
22−19
home record
24−17
19−22
away record
19−22
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
29.7
shots / game
30.8
52.7
faceoff %
47.8
18.8
hits / game
21.0
14.6
blocked shots / game
14.4
4.2
takeaways / game
5.1
15.6
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

EDM · ANA · 168 days
Edmonton OilersAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 5−5
Apr 22at EDMANA 6 − 4post
Apr 20at EDMEDM 4 − 3post
Mar 28at EDMEDM 4 − 2
Feb 25at ANAANA 6 − 5
Jan 26at EDMEDM 7 − 4
Apr 7, 2025at ANAANA 3 − 2
Mar 4, 2025at EDMANA 6 − 2
Jan 3, 2025at EDMEDM 3 − 2
Dec 29, 2024at ANAANA 5 − 3
Mar 30, 2024at EDMEDM 6 − 1

EDM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 22vs ANA4 − 6L
Apr 20vs ANA4 − 3W
Apr 16vs VAN6 − 1W
Apr 13vs COL1 − 2L
Apr 11at LA0 − 1L
Apr 8at SJ5 − 2W
Apr 7at UTAH5 − 6L
Apr 4vs VGK1 − 5L
Apr 2vs CHI3 − 1W
Mar 31vs SEA3 − 0W

ANA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 22at EDM6 − 4W
Apr 20at EDM3 − 4L
Apr 16at NSH5 − 4W
Apr 14at MIN2 − 3L
Apr 12vs VAN3 − 4L
Apr 9vs SJ6 − 1W
Apr 7vs NSH0 − 5L
Apr 4vs CGY3 − 5L
Apr 3vs STL2 − 6L
Apr 1at SJ3 − 4L