bayesRatings

Ducks at Predators

NHL · Thursday, Apr 16 · 7:00 PM CT · Bridgestone Arena · Final ANA 5 – NSH 4
← NHL / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA2125
NSH2204
Team box
ANA·NSH
40
shots
21
1 of 6
power play
2 of 3
50.8
faceoff %
49.2
16
hits
10
11
blocked shots
16
6
penalty minutes
12
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Steven StamkosNSH213
Mikael GranlundANA033
Filip ForsbergNSH206
Luke EvangelistaNSH023
John CarlsonANA020
Ryan UfkoNSH020
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ville HussoANA2117.810
Juuse SarosNSH4035.875

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NSH +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NSH 1 · ANA 1lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 46%, NSH 54% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NSH 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
Expected total
6.5
DucksThe matchupPredators
+119Our fair odds−119
3.1Expected goals3.4
−0.17Power rating−0.14
3.3Goals / game3.0
3.5Allowed / game3.3
30.7Shots / game28.0
47.8Faceoff %50.4
21.0Hits / game19.3
42−39Season record38−43
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · NSH chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+11946%————
NSHNashville Predators−11954%————
Spreadabout even
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.2our margin————
NSHNashville Predators−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 19%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 23%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 10%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 12%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 6%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: 2%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byNSH wins by →
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more32%
Nashville Predators wins by 3 or more22%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANAVille Husso G · last 5 starts: .862 save %, 3.52 GAAstarted
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .884 save %, 3.30 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·NSH
Apr 14 at MIN
last game
Apr 13 vs SJ
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
ANA·NSH
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
3.3
goals / game
3.0
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.3
42−39
season record
38−43
24−17
home record
21−19
18−22
away record
17−24
L2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
4−6
30.7
shots / game
28.0
47.8
faceoff %
50.4
21.0
hits / game
19.3
14.5
blocked shots / game
12.2
5.1
takeaways / game
5.2
15.7
giveaways / game
15.1

Rating Trend

ANA · NSH · 161 days
Anaheim DucksNashville Predators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NSH 4−6
Apr 7at ANANSH 5 − 0
Oct 21, 2025at NSHANA 5 − 2
Mar 20, 2025at NSHANA 4 − 1
Mar 14, 2025at ANAANA 2 − 1
Jan 25, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 2
Feb 25, 2024at ANANSH 4 − 2
Jan 9, 2024at NSHANA 5 − 3
Nov 14, 2023at NSHANA 3 − 2
Mar 12, 2023at ANANSH 5 − 4 OT
Dec 30, 2022at ANANSH 6 − 1

ANA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Apr 14at MIN2 − 3L
Apr 12vs VAN3 − 4L
Apr 9vs SJ6 − 1W
Apr 7vs NSH0 − 5L
Apr 4vs CGY3 − 5L
Apr 3vs STL2 − 6L
Apr 1at SJ3 − 4L
Mar 30vs TOR4 − 5L
Mar 28at EDM2 − 4L
Mar 26at CGY3 − 2W

NSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 13vs SJ2 − 3L
Apr 11vs MIN2 − 1W
Apr 9at UTAH1 − 4L
Apr 7at ANA5 − 0W
Apr 6at LA2 − 3L
Apr 4at SJ6 − 3W
Apr 2at LA5 − 4W
Mar 29at TB2 − 3L
Mar 28vs MTL1 − 4L
Mar 26vs NJ2 − 4L