bayesRatings

Ducks at Oilers

NHL · Monday, Apr 20 · 9:22 PM CT · Rogers Place · Final ANA 3 – EDM 4
← NHL / Apr 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA0303
EDM2024
Team box
ANA·EDM
28
shots
34
1 of 2
power play
0 of 2
43.5
faceoff %
56.5
37
hits
46
19
blocked shots
19
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Troy TerryANA215
Kasperi KapanenEDM207
Jason DickinsonEDM202
Leo CarlssonANA1110
Leon DraisaitlEDM022
Jake WalmanEDM022
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA3430.882
Connor IngramEDM2825.893

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
EDM +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: EDM 2 · ANA 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 40%, EDM 60% · Updated Apr 20

Expected margin
EDM by 0.6
Expected score
EDM 3.8 – 3.2 ANA
Expected total
7.0
DucksThe matchupOilers
+148Our fair odds−148
3.2Expected goals3.8
−0.17Power rating+0.09
3.3Goals / game3.4
3.5Allowed / game3.3
30.8Shots / game29.7
47.8Faceoff %52.7
21.0Hits / game18.8
43−39Season record41−41
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · EDM chance
Our model fair40.3%59.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+14840%————
EDMEdmonton Oilers−14860%————
SpreadEDM by 0.6
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.6our margin————
EDMEdmonton Oilers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.0
Over7.0our total————
Under7.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Edmonton Oilers by 0.6 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 17%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 22%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 11%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 14%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 8%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 3%Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: 1%Edmonton Oilers by 7 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byEDM wins by →
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more38%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 3 or more27%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.0 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 17%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 6%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: <1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.557%
Total over 7.538%
Total over 8.529%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .840 save %, 3.78 GAAstarted
EDMConnor Ingram G · last 5 starts: .907 save %, 2.13 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·EDM
Apr 16 at NSH
last game
Apr 16 vs VAN
3 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
ANA·EDM
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
3.3
goals / game
3.4
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.3
43−39
season record
41−41
24−17
home record
22−19
19−22
away record
19−22
W1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
30.8
shots / game
29.7
47.8
faceoff %
52.7
21.0
hits / game
18.8
14.4
blocked shots / game
14.6
5.1
takeaways / game
4.2
15.6
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

ANA · EDM · 164 days
Anaheim DucksEdmonton Oilers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · EDM 6−4
Mar 28at EDMEDM 4 − 2
Feb 25at ANAANA 6 − 5
Jan 26at EDMEDM 7 − 4
Apr 7, 2025at ANAANA 3 − 2
Mar 4, 2025at EDMANA 6 − 2
Jan 3, 2025at EDMEDM 3 − 2
Dec 29, 2024at ANAANA 5 − 3
Mar 30, 2024at EDMEDM 6 − 1
Feb 9, 2024at ANAEDM 5 − 3
Dec 31, 2023at ANAEDM 7 − 2

ANA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Apr 16at NSH5 − 4W
Apr 14at MIN2 − 3L
Apr 12vs VAN3 − 4L
Apr 9vs SJ6 − 1W
Apr 7vs NSH0 − 5L
Apr 4vs CGY3 − 5L
Apr 3vs STL2 − 6L
Apr 1at SJ3 − 4L
Mar 30vs TOR4 − 5L
Mar 28at EDM2 − 4L

EDM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 16vs VAN6 − 1W
Apr 13vs COL1 − 2L
Apr 11at LA0 − 1L
Apr 8at SJ5 − 2W
Apr 7at UTAH5 − 6L
Apr 4vs VGK1 − 5L
Apr 2vs CHI3 − 1W
Mar 31vs SEA3 − 0W
Mar 28vs ANA4 − 2W
Mar 26at VGK4 − 3W