bayesRatings

Oilers at Ducks

NHL · Thursday, Apr 30 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final EDM 2 – ANA 5
← NHL / Apr 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
EDM1012
ANA3115
Team box
EDM·ANA
27
shots
31
0 of 0
power play
1 of 2
46.7
faceoff %
53.3
27
hits
33
9
blocked shots
17
4
penalty minutes
0
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Troy TerryANA125
Chris KreiderANA122
Leo CarlssonANA122
Cutter GauthierANA115
Connor MurphyEDM104
Ryan PoehlingANA103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Connor IngramEDM3026.867
Lukas DostalANA2725.926

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
EDM +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 3 · EDM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was EDM 51%, ANA 49% · Updated Apr 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
EDM 3.9 – 3.5 ANA
Expected total
7.4
OilersThe matchupDucks
−105Our fair odds+105
3.9Expected goals3.5
+0.06Power rating−0.12
3.4Goals / game3.3
3.3Allowed / game3.5
29.7Shots / game30.8
52.7Faceoff %47.8
18.8Hits / game21.0
41−41 · 2−3 postSeason record43−39 · 3−2 post
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
EDM chance · ANA chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
EDMEdmonton Oilers−10551%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+10549%————
Spreadabout even
EDMEdmonton Oilers−0.4our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.4
Over7.4our total————
Under7.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Edmonton Oilers by 7 goals: <1%Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: 1%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 3%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 8%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 14%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 11%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 15%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 23%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%
← EDM wins byANA wins by →
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more38%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 3 or more27%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 5%4 goals: 5%5 goals: 15%6 goals: 10%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 14%10 goals: 6%11 goals: 7%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: 1%15 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 7.544%
Total over 8.534%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
EDMConnor Ingram G · last 5 starts: .881 save %, 3.22 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .874 save %, 3.64 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
EDM·ANA
Apr 28 vs ANA
last game
Apr 28 at EDM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
EDM·ANA
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
3.4
goals / game
3.3
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.5
41−41 · 2−3 post
season record
43−39 · 3−2 post
22−19
home record
24−17
19−22
away record
19−22
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
29.7
shots / game
30.8
52.7
faceoff %
47.8
18.8
hits / game
21.0
14.6
blocked shots / game
14.4
4.2
takeaways / game
5.1
15.6
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

EDM · ANA · 174 days
Edmonton OilersAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 6−4
Apr 28at EDMEDM 4 − 1post
Apr 26at ANAANA 4 − 3 OTpost
Apr 24at ANAANA 6 − 4post
Apr 22at EDMANA 6 − 4post
Apr 20at EDMEDM 4 − 3post
Mar 28at EDMEDM 4 − 2
Feb 25at ANAANA 6 − 5
Jan 26at EDMEDM 7 − 4
Apr 7, 2025at ANAANA 3 − 2
Mar 4, 2025at EDMANA 6 − 2

EDM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 28vs ANA4 − 1W
Apr 26at ANA3 − 4L
Apr 24at ANA4 − 6L
Apr 22vs ANA4 − 6L
Apr 20vs ANA4 − 3W
Apr 16vs VAN6 − 1W
Apr 13vs COL1 − 2L
Apr 11at LA0 − 1L
Apr 8at SJ5 − 2W
Apr 7at UTAH5 − 6L

ANA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 28at EDM1 − 4L
Apr 26vs EDM4 − 3W
Apr 24vs EDM6 − 4W
Apr 22at EDM6 − 4W
Apr 20at EDM3 − 4L
Apr 16at NSH5 − 4W
Apr 14at MIN2 − 3L
Apr 12vs VAN3 − 4L
Apr 9vs SJ6 − 1W
Apr 7vs NSH0 − 5L