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Mammoth at Senators

NHL · Saturday, Nov 7 · 6:00 PM CT · Canadian Tire Centre · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 7

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
OTT 3.2 – 3.0 UTAH
Expected total
6.3
MammothThe matchupSenators
+117Our fair odds−117
3.0Expected goals3.2
+0.09Power rating+0.12
3.6Goals / game3.1
3.3Allowed / game3.1
30.4Shots / game25.1
54.6Faceoff %52.0
27.0Hits / game25.4
9−5Season record8−6
6−4Last 105−5
John Marino D · Maveric Lamoureux D
Michael Carcone LWOutAndre Burakovsky LW · Linus Ullmark G
Warren Foegele LW · William Eklund LW

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · OTT chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth+11746%————
OTTOttawa Senators−11754%————
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah Mammoth+0.2our margin————
OTTOttawa Senators−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 5%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 10%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 9%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 20%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 22%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 10%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 12%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 6%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins byOTT wins by →
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more31%
Ottawa Senators wins by 3 or more21%
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
UTAHnot announced yet
OTTnot announced yet

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·OTT
Oct 29 at PIT
last game
Oct 29 at LA
8 days
days of rest
8 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Utah Mammoth
UTAHJohn Marino D · upper bodyOut
UTAHMaveric Lamoureux D · shoulder, back about Feb 12, 2027IR
UTAHMichael Carcone LW · upper bodyIR
Ottawa Senators
OTTAndre Burakovsky LW · lower body, back about Nov 21Out
OTTHayden Hodgson RW · suspensionSuspension
OTTLinus Ullmark G · lower body strainIR
OTTWarren Foegele LW · right knee, back about Nov 25IR
OTTWilliam Eklund LW · ankle, back about Jan 5, 2027IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
UTAH·OTT
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
3.6
goals / game
3.1
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.1
9−5
season record
8−6
4−2
home record
5−2
5−3
away record
3−4
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
30.4
shots / game
25.1
54.6
faceoff %
52.0
27.0
hits / game
25.4
14.6
blocked shots / game
16.0
3.6
takeaways / game
4.4
16.1
giveaways / game
14.9

Rating Trend

UTAH · OTT · 32 days
Utah MammothOttawa Senators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · OTT 3−1
Jan 7at UTAHUTAH 3 − 1
Nov 9, 2025at OTTOTT 4 − 2
Jan 26, 2025at OTTOTT 3 − 1
Oct 22, 2024at UTAHOTT 4 − 0

UTAH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 29at PIT4 − 3W
Oct 27vs MIN1 − 3L
Oct 24vs TB5 − 4W
Oct 22at SEA3 − 5L
Oct 19vs PIT5 − 4W
Oct 17vs EDM2 − 6L
Oct 15at EDM4 − 2W
Oct 13vs TOR5 − 4W
Oct 10at BUF4 − 1W
Oct 8at BOS1 − 6L

OTT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 29at LA5 − 6L
Oct 27at VGK1 − 4L
Oct 24vs NYR7 − 4W
Oct 22vs SJ2 − 6L
Oct 21vs FLA5 − 1W
Oct 17at PHI1 − 3L
Oct 15vs NYI2 − 1W
Oct 13vs STL2 − 7L
Oct 12at NJ4 − 1W
Oct 10vs NSH3 − 2W