bayesRatings

Braves at Astros

MLB · Friday, Sep 18 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final ATL 6 – HOU 2
← MLB / Sep 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL0002002026110
HOU000100010251
Team box
ATL·HOU
11
hits
5
3
home runs
0
2
walks
2
10
strikeouts
12
149
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL3-5212
Michael Harris IIATL3-5112
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-5112
Isaac ParedesHOU2-4002
Mauricio DubonATL2-5000
Drake BaldwinATL2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Mahle (W)ATL6.03116
Peter Lambert (L)HOU5.16216

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +4
ATL +4
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · ATL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 53%, HOU 47% · Updated Sep 18

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 4.5 – 4.0 HOU
Expected total
8.6
BravesThe matchupAstros
−111Our fair odds+111
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.15Power rating−0.04
4.6Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game4.8
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.25Home runs / game1.35
2.9Walks drawn / game3.2
89−64Season record77−76
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair52.7%47.3%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11153%−12154.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+11147%+10149.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.5
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.5our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.5 expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byHOU wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more40%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 0.92 ERA, 15 Kstarted
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·HOU
Sep 16 at CHC
last game
Sep 17 vs KC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 153+ games
ATL·HOU
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.6
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.8
89−64
season record
77−76
51−27
home record
39−39
38−37
away record
38−37
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.25
home runs / game
1.35
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.42
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

ATL · HOU · 174 days
Atlanta BravesHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Sep 14, 2025at ATLATL 8 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at ATLHOU 6 − 2
Sep 12, 2025at ATLHOU 11 − 3
Apr 17, 2024at HOUATL 5 − 4
Apr 16, 2024at HOUATL 6 − 2
Apr 15, 2024at HOUATL 6 − 1
Apr 23, 2023at ATLHOU 5 − 2
Apr 22, 2023at ATLHOU 6 − 3
Apr 21, 2023at ATLHOU 6 − 4
Aug 21, 2022at ATLHOU 5 − 4

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 16at CHC4 − 8L
Sep 15at CHC6 − 3W
Sep 14at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 13vs PHI4 − 9L
Sep 12vs PHI12 − 2W
Sep 11vs PHI6 − 5W
Sep 10vs TB3 − 1W
Sep 9vs TB2 − 7L
Sep 8vs TB1 − 7L
Sep 7at PHI0 − 1L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 17vs KC6 − 2W
Sep 16vs KC2 − 5L
Sep 15vs KC4 − 2W
Sep 13at TB4 − 14L
Sep 12at TB2 − 3L
Sep 11at TB1 − 3L
Sep 10at PHI2 − 1W
Sep 9at PHI7 − 11L
Sep 8at PHI6 − 5W
Sep 6vs ARI2 − 3L