bayesRatings

Rockies at White Sox

MLB · Friday, Sep 25 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final COL 1 – CHW 6
← MLB / Sep 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL010000000141
CHW201000126100
Team box
COL·CHW
4
hits
10
1
home runs
2
2
walks
0
11
strikeouts
6
113
pitches thrown
137
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Munetaka MurakamiCHW3-4223
TJ RumfieldCOL2-4111
Kyle TeelCHW1-3102
Sam AntonacciCHW3-4100
Braden MontgomeryCHW2-3200
Randal GrichukCHW1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tomoyuki Sugano (L)COL6.26405
Sean Burke (W)CHW5.14117

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +5
COL +5
123456789
largest lead: CHW 5 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 35%, CHW 65% · Updated Sep 25

Expected margin
CHW by 1.5
Expected score
CHW 5.8 – 4.3 COL
Expected total
10.2
RockiesThe matchupWhite Sox
+189Our fair odds−189
4.3Expected runs5.8
−0.56Power rating+0.00
4.7Runs / game4.8
5.8Allowed / game4.5
8.7Hits / game7.9
1.10Home runs / game1.28
3.1Walks drawn / game3.7
57−102Season record82−77
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · CHW chance
Our model fair34.6%65.4%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+18935%+19833.5%———
CHWChicago White Sox−18965%−23970.5%———
SpreadCHW by 1.5
COLColorado Rockies+1.5our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago White Sox by 1.5 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 16%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more48%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more39%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 5.54 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·CHW
Sep 24 vs ARI
last game
Sep 24 at KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 159+ games
COL·CHW
−0.56
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.7
runs / game
4.8
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
57−102
season record
82−77
32−49
home record
46−32
25−53
away record
36−45
L4
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
7.9
1.10
home runs / game
1.28
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
6.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.61
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

COL · CHW · 181 days
Colorado RockiesChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 5−5
Jul 6, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 4
Jul 5, 2025at COLCHW 10 − 3
Jul 4, 2025at COLCHW 3 − 2
Jun 30, 2024at CHWCOL 5 − 4
Jun 29, 2024at CHWCHW 11 − 3
Jun 28, 2024at CHWCHW 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2023at COLCHW 10 − 5
Aug 19, 2023at COLCOL 11 − 5
Aug 18, 2023at COLCOL 14 − 1
Sep 14, 2022at CHWCOL 3 − 0

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Sep 24vs ARI8 − 12L
Sep 23vs ARI3 − 5L
Sep 22vs ARI2 − 7L
Sep 20vs SEA1 − 2L
Sep 19vs SEA5 − 3W
Sep 18vs SEA4 − 5L
Sep 17vs SD2 − 9L
Sep 16vs SD3 − 9L
Sep 15vs SD9 − 3W
Sep 14vs SD7 − 8L

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 24at KC9 − 1W
Sep 23at KC4 − 5L
Sep 22at KC14 − 11W
Sep 20vs DET8 − 1W
Sep 19vs DET3 − 1W
Sep 18vs DET8 − 11L
Sep 17vs DET3 − 1W
Sep 16at CLE3 − 6L
Sep 15at CLE6 − 7L
Sep 14at CLE7 − 3W