bayesRatings

Mariners at Rockies

MLB · Friday, Sep 18 · 7:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final SEA 5 – COL 4
← MLB / Sep 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA300000101591
COL1001020004150
Team box
SEA·COL
9
hits
15
2
home runs
0
2
walks
1
9
strikeouts
9
158
pitches thrown
142
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake McCarthyCOL3-5102
Connor NorbyCOL3-4101
Cole CarriggCOL3-5001
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-4111
Lazaro MontesSEA1-4111
Josh NaylorSEA1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan WooSEA5.110314
Carlos Vargas (W)SEA0.10000
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.01002
Gabriel HughesCOL4.25316
Jordan Romano (L)COL1.02101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 1 · SEA 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 59%, COL 41% · Updated Sep 18

Expected margin
SEA by 1.2
Expected score
SEA 6.2 – 5.0 COL
Expected total
11.2
MarinersThe matchupRockies
−145Our fair odds+145
6.2Expected runs5.0
−0.07Power rating−0.53
4.1Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game5.8
7.7Hits / game8.6
1.14Home runs / game1.10
3.4Walks drawn / game3.2
71−82Season record56−97
5−5Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · COL chance
Our model fair59.2%40.8%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−14559%−18364.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+14541%+15239.6%———
SpreadSEA by 1.2
SEASeattle Mariners−1.2our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 1.2 expected
Seattle Mariners by 17 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 16 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 15 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byCOL wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more47%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.45 ERA, 21 Kstarted
COLGabriel Hughes SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·COL
Sep 16 at LAA
last game
Sep 17 vs SD
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 153+ games
SEA·COL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.53
4.1
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.8
71−82
season record
56−97
40−35
home record
31−44
31−47
away record
25−53
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
1−9
7.7
hits / game
8.6
1.14
home runs / game
1.10
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.9
0.52
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

SEA · COL · 174 days
Seattle MarinersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 2−8
Sep 25, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 2
Sep 24, 2025at SEASEA 9 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Apr 21, 2024at COLSEA 10 − 2
Apr 21, 2024at COLCOL 2 − 1
Apr 20, 2024at COLSEA 7 − 0
Apr 16, 2023at SEASEA 1 − 0
Apr 15, 2023at SEASEA 9 − 2
Apr 14, 2023at SEASEA 5 − 3
Jul 21, 2021at COLCOL 6 − 3

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 16at LAA7 − 2W
Sep 15at LAA1 − 2L
Sep 14at LAA4 − 6L
Sep 13at ATH7 − 8L
Sep 12at ATH19 − 1W
Sep 11at ATH5 − 6L
Sep 10vs TEX4 − 3W
Sep 9vs TEX3 − 2W
Sep 8vs TEX5 − 10L
Sep 6vs ATH2 − 0W

COL · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Sep 17vs SD2 − 9L
Sep 16vs SD3 − 9L
Sep 15vs SD9 − 3W
Sep 14vs SD7 − 8L
Sep 13at DET1 − 8L
Sep 12at DET7 − 11L
Sep 11at DET2 − 6L
Sep 10at NYY3 − 10L
Sep 9at NYY1 − 6L
Sep 8at NYY3 − 5L