bayesRatings

Mariners at Angels

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 15 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final SEA 1 – LAA 2
← MLB / Sep 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000001000170
LAA00001100270
Team box
SEA·LAA
7
hits
7
0
home runs
1
0
walks
2
9
strikeouts
10
124
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh LoweLAA2-3111
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-3001
Wade MecklerLAA2-4100
Moises BallesterosLAA2-4000
Josh NaylorSEA2-4000
Julio RodriguezSEA1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Gilbert (L)SEA6.06227
Ryan Johnson (W)LAA6.06107
Ryan Watson (S)LAA1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 53%, LAA 47% · Updated Sep 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.4 – 4.1 LAA
Expected total
8.5
MarinersThe matchupAngels
−113Our fair odds+113
4.4Expected runs4.1
−0.08Power rating−0.29
4.1Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.6
7.7Hits / game7.8
1.16Home runs / game0.97
3.4Walks drawn / game3.1
70−81Season record57−93
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshi62.7%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−11353%−16862.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11347%+14640.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners−0.3our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byLAA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more28%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 7.02 ERA, 25 Kstarted
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·LAA
Sep 14 at LAA
last game
Sep 14 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 150+ games
SEA·LAA
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
4.1
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.6
70−81
season record
57−93
40−35
home record
31−44
30−46
away record
26−49
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
7.8
1.16
home runs / game
0.97
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.52
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

SEA · LAA · 171 days
Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 3−7
Sep 14at LAALAA 6 − 4
Jul 2at SEASEA 1 − 0
Jun 30at SEASEA 8 − 3
Jun 29at SEASEA 6 − 2
Apr 5at LAALAA 8 − 7
Apr 4at LAALAA 1 − 0
Apr 3at LAASEA 3 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 3
Sep 12, 2025at SEASEA 2 − 1

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 14at LAA4 − 6L
Sep 13at ATH7 − 8L
Sep 12at ATH19 − 1W
Sep 11at ATH5 − 6L
Sep 10vs TEX4 − 3W
Sep 9vs TEX3 − 2W
Sep 8vs TEX5 − 10L
Sep 6vs ATH2 − 0W
Sep 5vs ATH2 − 6L
Sep 4vs ATH6 − 7L

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 14vs SEA6 − 4W
Sep 13at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 12at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 11at WSH3 − 4L
Sep 9at BOS6 − 4W
Sep 8at BOS6 − 1W
Sep 7at BOS2 − 5L
Sep 6at PIT0 − 1L
Sep 5at PIT6 − 1W
Sep 4at PIT0 − 1L