bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Rockies

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final ARI 5 – COL 3
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI400000010580
COL011000010371
Team box
ARI·COL
8
hits
7
1
home runs
1
0
walks
2
10
strikeouts
5
126
pitches thrown
115
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ezequiel TovarCOL2-4211
Gabriel MorenoARI3-4101
Tim TawaARI1-3111
Corbin CarrollARI1-4002
Hunter GoodmanCOL2-3001
Nolan ArenadoARI1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (W)ARI5.14212
Jonathan Loaisiga (S)ARI1.01010
Mason Adams (L)COL6.05008

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
ARI +4
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · ARI 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 62%, COL 38% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
ARI by 1.6
Expected score
ARI 6.4 – 4.8 COL
Expected total
11.2
DiamondbacksThe matchupRockies
−165Our fair odds+165
6.4Expected runs4.8
+0.05Power rating−0.54
4.5Runs / game4.6
4.4Allowed / game5.8
8.2Hits / game8.6
1.01Home runs / game1.09
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
83−74Season record57−100
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · COL chance
Our model fair62.3%37.7%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−16562%−16862.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+16538%+14041.7%———
SpreadARI by 1.6
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−1.6our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.6 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 18 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 17 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byCOL wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more50%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 16 Kstarted
COLMason Adams SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·COL
Sep 22 at COL
last game
Sep 22 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
ARI·COL
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.54
4.5
runs / game
4.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.8
83−74
season record
57−100
45−36
home record
32−47
38−38
away record
25−53
W3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.2
hits / game
8.6
1.01
home runs / game
1.09
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.41
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

ARI · COL · 179 days
Arizona DiamondbacksColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Sep 22at COLARI 7 − 2
Aug 12at ARICOL 6 − 4
Aug 11at ARICOL 3 − 2
Aug 10at ARIARI 9 − 0
May 24at ARIARI 9 − 1
May 23at ARIARI 5 − 4
May 22at ARICOL 3 − 2
May 21at ARIARI 2 − 1
May 17at COLARI 8 − 6
May 16at COLCOL 4 − 2

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Sep 22at COL7 − 2W
Sep 20vs NYY8 − 4W
Sep 19vs NYY5 − 3W
Sep 18vs NYY2 − 9L
Sep 16vs MIA3 − 4L
Sep 15vs MIA2 − 4L
Sep 14vs MIA8 − 7W
Sep 13vs TEX6 − 7L
Sep 12vs TEX2 − 6L
Sep 11vs TEX9 − 1W

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Sep 22vs ARI2 − 7L
Sep 20vs SEA1 − 2L
Sep 19vs SEA5 − 3W
Sep 18vs SEA4 − 5L
Sep 17vs SD2 − 9L
Sep 16vs SD3 − 9L
Sep 15vs SD9 − 3W
Sep 14vs SD7 − 8L
Sep 13at DET1 − 8L
Sep 12at DET7 − 11L