bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Rockies

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 22 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final ARI 7 – COL 2
← MLB / Sep 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI3011101007132
COL002000000231
Team box
ARI·COL
13
hits
3
1
home runs
1
2
walks
1
3
strikeouts
11
113
pitches thrown
146
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan ArenadoARI3-5211
Geraldo PerdomoARI3-5101
Mickey MoniakCOL1-3111
Gabriel MorenoARI1-4102
Tim TawaARI1-2002
Ildemaro VargasARI2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Soroka (W)ARI7.02119
Kyle Freeland (L)COL3.09512

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +5
ARI +5
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · ARI 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 62%, COL 38% · Updated Sep 22

Expected margin
ARI by 1.5
Expected score
ARI 6.4 – 4.9 COL
Expected total
11.3
DiamondbacksThe matchupRockies
−162Our fair odds+162
6.4Expected runs4.9
+0.04Power rating−0.54
4.4Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game5.8
8.2Hits / game8.7
1.01Home runs / game1.09
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
82−74Season record57−99
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · COL chance
Our model fair61.8%38.2%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−16262%−18364.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+16238%+15239.6%———
SpreadARI by 1.5
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−1.5our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.3
Over11.3our total————
Under11.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.5 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 18 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 17 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byCOL wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more49%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.558%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 14 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·COL
Sep 20 vs NYY
last game
Sep 20 vs SEA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 156+ games
ARI·COL
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.54
4.4
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.8
82−74
season record
57−99
45−36
home record
32−46
37−38
away record
25−53
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
2−8
8.2
hits / game
8.7
1.01
home runs / game
1.09
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.9
0.40
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

ARI · COL · 178 days
Arizona DiamondbacksColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Aug 12at ARICOL 6 − 4
Aug 11at ARICOL 3 − 2
Aug 10at ARIARI 9 − 0
May 24at ARIARI 9 − 1
May 23at ARIARI 5 − 4
May 22at ARICOL 3 − 2
May 21at ARIARI 2 − 1
May 17at COLARI 8 − 6
May 16at COLCOL 4 − 2
May 15at COLARI 9 − 1

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Sep 20vs NYY8 − 4W
Sep 19vs NYY5 − 3W
Sep 18vs NYY2 − 9L
Sep 16vs MIA3 − 4L
Sep 15vs MIA2 − 4L
Sep 14vs MIA8 − 7W
Sep 13vs TEX6 − 7L
Sep 12vs TEX2 − 6L
Sep 11vs TEX9 − 1W
Sep 9at KC2 − 5L

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Sep 20vs SEA1 − 2L
Sep 19vs SEA5 − 3W
Sep 18vs SEA4 − 5L
Sep 17vs SD2 − 9L
Sep 16vs SD3 − 9L
Sep 15vs SD9 − 3W
Sep 14vs SD7 − 8L
Sep 13at DET1 − 8L
Sep 12at DET7 − 11L
Sep 11at DET2 − 6L