bayesRatings

Mariners at Rockies

MLB · Saturday, Sep 19 · 7:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final SEA 3 – COL 5
← MLB / Sep 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA201000000383
COL00100040590
Team box
SEA·COL
8
hits
9
2
home runs
0
2
walks
4
8
strikeouts
8
139
pitches thrown
136
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cal RaleighSEA2-4112
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-4111
TJ RumfieldCOL2-4101
Cole CarriggCOL1-4002
Jake McCarthyCOL1-5101
Connor NorbyCOL2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce MillerSEA5.14026
Jose Ferrer (L)SEA0.12200
Jose QuintanaCOL4.05312
Juan Mejia (W)COL2.01002
Brennan Bernardino (S)COL1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 2 · SEA 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 60%, COL 40% · Updated Sep 19

Expected margin
SEA by 1.2
Expected score
SEA 6.2 – 5.0 COL
Expected total
11.2
MarinersThe matchupRockies
−147Our fair odds+147
6.2Expected runs5.0
−0.07Power rating−0.54
4.1Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game5.8
7.7Hits / game8.7
1.15Home runs / game1.10
3.4Walks drawn / game3.1
72−82Season record56−98
5−5Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · COL chance
Our model fair59.5%40.5%
Kalshi59.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−14760%−14859.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+14740%+11945.7%———
SpreadSEA by 1.2
SEASeattle Mariners−1.2our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 1.2 expected
Seattle Mariners by 17 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 16 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 15 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byCOL wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more47%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 4.72 ERA, 14 Kstarted
COLJose Quintana SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·COL
Sep 18 at COL
last game
Sep 18 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 154+ games
SEA·COL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.54
4.1
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.8
72−82
season record
56−98
40−35
home record
31−45
32−47
away record
25−53
W2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
1−9
7.7
hits / game
8.7
1.15
home runs / game
1.10
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.9
0.52
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

SEA · COL · 175 days
Seattle MarinersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 1−9
Sep 18at COLSEA 5 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 2
Sep 24, 2025at SEASEA 9 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Apr 21, 2024at COLSEA 10 − 2
Apr 21, 2024at COLCOL 2 − 1
Apr 20, 2024at COLSEA 7 − 0
Apr 16, 2023at SEASEA 1 − 0
Apr 15, 2023at SEASEA 9 − 2
Apr 14, 2023at SEASEA 5 − 3

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 18at COL5 − 4W
Sep 16at LAA7 − 2W
Sep 15at LAA1 − 2L
Sep 14at LAA4 − 6L
Sep 13at ATH7 − 8L
Sep 12at ATH19 − 1W
Sep 11at ATH5 − 6L
Sep 10vs TEX4 − 3W
Sep 9vs TEX3 − 2W
Sep 8vs TEX5 − 10L

COL · Last 10

1−9 · streak L3
Sep 18vs SEA4 − 5L
Sep 17vs SD2 − 9L
Sep 16vs SD3 − 9L
Sep 15vs SD9 − 3W
Sep 14vs SD7 − 8L
Sep 13at DET1 − 8L
Sep 12at DET7 − 11L
Sep 11at DET2 − 6L
Sep 10at NYY3 − 10L
Sep 9at NYY1 − 6L