Final Box Score
from the game summary| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Player | Team | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Garrett Mitchell | MIL | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| William Contreras | MIL | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sal Frelick | MIL | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jackson Chourio | MIL | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | ER | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser | MIL | 4.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Aaron Ashby (W) | MIL | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Trevor Megill (S) | MIL | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Walker Buehler | SD | 3.0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Robbie Ray (L) | SD | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
For context, not in our forecast.
Game Flow
score marginFor context, not in our forecast.
Final · our forecast was MIL 55%, SD 45% · Updated Oct 7
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshipre-game · 9:00 PM CT | Polymarket US | ProphetX | Novig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| MILMilwaukee Brewers | −12155% | −11252.7% | — | — | — |
| SDSan Diego Padres | +12145% | −10751.8% | — | — | — |
| SpreadMIL by 0.6 | |||||
| MILMilwaukee Brewers | −0.6our margin | — | — | — | — |
| SDSan Diego Padres | +0.6our margin | — | — | — | — |
| Totalwe expect 8.2 | |||||
| Over | 8.2our total | — | — | — | — |
| Under | 8.2our total | — | — | — | — |
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Milwaukee Brewers by 0.6 expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.
Total range
8.2 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.
Starting Pitchers
from the box scoreStarting pitchers are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.