bayesRatings

Padres at Dodgers

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final SD 5 – LAD 1
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000220001580
LAD0001000001101
Team box
SD·LAD
8
hits
10
1
home runs
0
2
walks
5
5
strikeouts
8
178
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD1-4113
Teoscar HernandezLAD3-4100
Andy PagesLAD3-4000
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD3-5100
Kyle TuckerLAD2-4000
Freddy FerminSD1-1001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robbie RaySD3.17112
Bradgley Rodriguez (W)SD2.01013
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (L)LAD6.05214

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · SD 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 42%, LAD 58% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 3.8 SD
Expected total
8.6
PadresThe matchupDodgers
+138Our fair odds−138
3.8Expected runs4.8
+0.14Power rating+0.38
4.4Runs / game5.0
4.2Allowed / game3.7
8.1Hits / game8.6
1.14Home runs / game1.27
3.4Walks drawn / game3.9
87−70Season record97−60
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · LAD chance
Our model fair42.1%57.9%
Kalshi34.5%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+13842%+18934.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13858%−22869.5%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
SDSan Diego Padres+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← SD wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more44%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more34%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.78 ERA, 12 Kstarted
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 2.14 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·LAD
Sep 22 at LAD
last game
Sep 22 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
SD·LAD
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
4.4
runs / game
5.0
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.7
87−70
season record
97−60
49−29
home record
51−28
38−41
away record
46−32
L1
streak
W5
8−2
last 10
7−3
8.1
hits / game
8.6
1.14
home runs / game
1.27
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.40
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

SD · LAD · 179 days
San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 8−2
Sep 22at LADLAD 7 − 0
Jul 5at LADSD 5 − 2
Jul 4at LADLAD 3 − 0
Jul 3at LADLAD 4 − 3
Jul 2at LADLAD 12 − 7
Jun 28at SDLAD 4 − 2
Jun 27at SDLAD 15 − 3
Jun 26at SDSD 7 − 1
May 20at SDLAD 4 − 0
May 19at SDLAD 5 − 4

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Sep 22at LAD0 − 7L
Sep 20vs MIA7 − 3W
Sep 19vs MIA7 − 6W
Sep 18vs MIA8 − 2W
Sep 17at COL9 − 2W
Sep 16at COL9 − 3W
Sep 15at COL3 − 9L
Sep 14at COL8 − 7W
Sep 13at SF6 − 4W
Sep 12at SF7 − 6W

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Sep 22vs SD7 − 0W
Sep 20vs SF3 − 1W
Sep 19vs SF10 − 4W
Sep 18vs SF8 − 2W
Sep 17at CIN8 − 2W
Sep 16at CIN2 − 6L
Sep 15at CIN4 − 0W
Sep 14at CIN4 − 1W
Sep 13at MIA4 − 6L
Sep 12at MIA3 − 4L