bayesRatings

Giants at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Sep 20 · 3:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final SF 1 – LAD 3
← MLB / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF100000000120
LAD000001113112
Team box
SF·LAD
2
hits
11
0
home runs
1
3
walks
0
14
strikeouts
7
125
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tommy EdmanLAD1-4111
Max MuncyLAD2-4101
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4000
Enrique HernandezLAD1-3001
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-4100
Josue De PaulaLAD2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matt WilkinsonSF5.03006
Sam Hentges (L)SF0.13100
Jack DreyerLAD1.01111
Kris Bubic (W)LAD0.20001
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 2 · SF 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 35%, LAD 65% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
LAD by 1.6
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.7 SF
Expected total
9.0
GiantsThe matchupDodgers
+182Our fair odds−182
3.7Expected runs5.3
−0.15Power rating+0.36
4.2Runs / game5.0
4.8Allowed / game3.8
8.4Hits / game8.6
1.14Home runs / game1.26
2.8Walks drawn / game3.9
64−91Season record95−60
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · LAD chance
Our model fair35.5%64.5%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+18235%+22930.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−18265%−27673.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.6
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.6our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.6 expected
San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← SF wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more39%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFMatt Wilkinson SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA, 8 Kstarted
LADJack Dreyer RP · last 3 starts: 4.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·LAD
Sep 19 at LAD
last game
Sep 19 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 155+ games
SF·LAD
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.36
4.2
runs / game
5.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.8
64−91
season record
95−60
36−39
home record
49−28
28−52
away record
46−32
L2
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
8.6
1.14
home runs / game
1.26
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.67
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

SF · LAD · 176 days
San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
Sep 19at LADLAD 10 − 4
Sep 18at LADLAD 8 − 2
May 14at LADLAD 5 − 2
May 13at LADLAD 4 − 0
May 12at LADSF 6 − 2
May 11at LADSF 9 − 3
Apr 23at SFLAD 3 − 0
Apr 22at SFSF 3 − 0
Apr 21at SFSF 3 − 1
Sep 21, 2025at LADSF 3 − 1

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 19at LAD4 − 10L
Sep 18at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16at STL6 − 5W
Sep 15at STL10 − 3W
Sep 14at STL1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SD4 − 6L
Sep 12vs SD6 − 7L
Sep 11vs SD5 − 7L
Sep 9vs STL7 − 6W
Sep 8vs STL2 − 1W

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Sep 19vs SF10 − 4W
Sep 18vs SF8 − 2W
Sep 17at CIN8 − 2W
Sep 16at CIN2 − 6L
Sep 15at CIN4 − 0W
Sep 14at CIN4 − 1W
Sep 13at MIA4 − 6L
Sep 12at MIA3 − 4L
Sep 11at MIA6 − 2W
Sep 9vs CIN14 − 1W