bayesRatings

Giants at Cardinals

MLB · Monday, Sep 14 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final SF 1 – STL 2
← MLB / Sep 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000001000160
STL00002000280
Team box
SF·STL
6
hits
8
0
home runs
0
4
walks
4
12
strikeouts
6
146
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Leo BernalSTL3-4001
Alec BurlesonSTL2-3001
Jonah CoxSF1-4001
Thomas SaggeseSTL2-4100
Shay WhitcombSF1-3000
Grant McCraySF1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Landen Roupp (L)SF4.15234
Quinn Mathews (W)STL6.24128
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.01012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 2 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, STL 55% · Updated Sep 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.7 – 4.4 SF
Expected total
9.1
GiantsThe matchupCardinals
+124Our fair odds−124
4.4Expected runs4.7
−0.15Power rating−0.02
4.2Runs / game4.6
4.7Allowed / game4.6
8.4Hits / game8.2
1.15Home runs / game1.05
2.8Walks drawn / game3.2
62−88Season record74−76
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · STL chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12445%+12943.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−12455%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.3our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.12 ERA, 9 Kstarted
STLQuinn Mathews SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·STL
Sep 13 vs SD
last game
Sep 13 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 150+ games
SF·STL
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.2
runs / game
4.6
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
62−88
season record
74−76
36−39
home record
36−39
26−49
away record
38−37
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.2
1.15
home runs / game
1.05
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.67
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

SF · STL · 170 days
San Francisco GiantsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Sep 9at SFSF 7 − 6
Sep 8at SFSF 2 − 1
Sep 7at SFSF 5 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at SFSTL 9 − 8
Sep 22, 2025at SFSTL 6 − 5
Sep 7, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at STLSF 8 − 2
Sep 29, 2024at SFSTL 6 − 1

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Sep 13vs SD4 − 6L
Sep 12vs SD6 − 7L
Sep 11vs SD5 − 7L
Sep 9vs STL7 − 6W
Sep 8vs STL2 − 1W
Sep 7vs STL5 − 4W
Sep 6at NYM2 − 4L
Sep 5at NYM9 − 5W
Sep 4at NYM6 − 10L
Sep 3at PIT2 − 5L

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 13vs CHW3 − 1W
Sep 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Sep 11vs CHW7 − 3W
Sep 9at SF6 − 7L
Sep 8at SF1 − 2L
Sep 7at SF4 − 5L
Sep 6at COL10 − 8W
Sep 5at COL7 − 10L
Sep 4at COL7 − 6W
Sep 3at LAD2 − 3L