bayesRatings

Giants at Cardinals

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 15 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final SF 10 – STL 3
← MLB / Sep 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF30410001110120
STL101000010352
Team box
SF·STL
12
hits
5
2
home runs
1
5
walks
2
11
strikeouts
5
140
pitches thrown
180
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce EldridgeSF2-4213
Turner HillSF2-4113
Christian KossSF3-5002
Alec BurlesonSTL1-3111
Osleivis BasabeSF1-3001
Grant McCraySF1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Blade Tidwell (W)SF6.23214
Andre Pallante (L)STL5.08622

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +7
SF +7
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · SF 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 44%, STL 56% · Updated Sep 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.7 – 4.3 SF
Expected total
9.0
GiantsThe matchupCardinals
+125Our fair odds−125
4.3Expected runs4.7
−0.16Power rating−0.02
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.7Allowed / game4.6
8.4Hits / game8.2
1.14Home runs / game1.04
2.8Walks drawn / game3.2
62−89Season record75−76
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · STL chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12544%+14640.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−12556%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.3our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFBlade Tidwell SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.71 ERA, 11 Kstarted
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·STL
Sep 14 at STL
last game
Sep 14 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 151+ games
SF·STL
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
62−89
season record
75−76
36−39
home record
37−39
26−50
away record
38−37
L4
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.2
1.14
home runs / game
1.04
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.66
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

SF · STL · 171 days
San Francisco GiantsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Sep 14at STLSTL 2 − 1
Sep 9at SFSF 7 − 6
Sep 8at SFSF 2 − 1
Sep 7at SFSF 5 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at SFSTL 9 − 8
Sep 22, 2025at SFSTL 6 − 5
Sep 7, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at STLSF 8 − 2

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Sep 14at STL1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SD4 − 6L
Sep 12vs SD6 − 7L
Sep 11vs SD5 − 7L
Sep 9vs STL7 − 6W
Sep 8vs STL2 − 1W
Sep 7vs STL5 − 4W
Sep 6at NYM2 − 4L
Sep 5at NYM9 − 5W
Sep 4at NYM6 − 10L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 14vs SF2 − 1W
Sep 13vs CHW3 − 1W
Sep 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Sep 11vs CHW7 − 3W
Sep 9at SF6 − 7L
Sep 8at SF1 − 2L
Sep 7at SF4 − 5L
Sep 6at COL10 − 8W
Sep 5at COL7 − 10L
Sep 4at COL7 − 6W