bayesRatings

Giants at Cardinals

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 16 · 12:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final SF 6 – STL 5
← MLB / Sep 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
SF00100021026132
STL0000002021552
Team box
SF·STL
13
hits
5
1
home runs
0
4
walks
7
5
strikeouts
10
175
pitches thrown
138
2
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drew GilbertSF1-1112
Andrew KniznerSF3-4101
Jonah CoxSF3-4101
Shay WhitcombSF2-5100
Nathan ChurchSTL2-5000
Thomas SaggeseSTL1-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Anthony MolinaSF5.22016
Reiver Sanmartin (W)SF0.10000
Joel Kuhnel (S)SF1.00020
Matthew LiberatoreSTL6.06132
Riley O'Brien (L)STL1.02110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
SF +3
12345678910
largest lead: STL 0 · SF 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 45%, STL 55% · Updated Sep 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.6 – 4.4 SF
Expected total
9.0
GiantsThe matchupCardinals
+121Our fair odds−121
4.4Expected runs4.6
−0.14Power rating−0.03
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.7Allowed / game4.6
8.4Hits / game8.2
1.14Home runs / game1.04
2.8Walks drawn / game3.2
63−89Season record75−77
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · STL chance
Our model fair45.3%54.7%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12145%+13442.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−12155%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.2our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more37%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFAnthony Molina SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.92 ERA, 16 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·STL
Sep 15 at STL
last game
Sep 15 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 152+ games
SF·STL
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
63−89
season record
75−77
36−39
home record
37−40
27−50
away record
38−37
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.2
1.14
home runs / game
1.04
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.66
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

SF · STL · 172 days
San Francisco GiantsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Sep 15at STLSF 10 − 3
Sep 14at STLSTL 2 − 1
Sep 9at SFSF 7 − 6
Sep 8at SFSF 2 − 1
Sep 7at SFSF 5 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at SFSTL 9 − 8
Sep 22, 2025at SFSTL 6 − 5
Sep 7, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 15at STL10 − 3W
Sep 14at STL1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SD4 − 6L
Sep 12vs SD6 − 7L
Sep 11vs SD5 − 7L
Sep 9vs STL7 − 6W
Sep 8vs STL2 − 1W
Sep 7vs STL5 − 4W
Sep 6at NYM2 − 4L
Sep 5at NYM9 − 5W

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 15vs SF3 − 10L
Sep 14vs SF2 − 1W
Sep 13vs CHW3 − 1W
Sep 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Sep 11vs CHW7 − 3W
Sep 9at SF6 − 7L
Sep 8at SF1 − 2L
Sep 7at SF4 − 5L
Sep 6at COL10 − 8W
Sep 5at COL7 − 10L