bayesRatings

Giants at Dodgers

MLB · Saturday, Sep 19 · 8:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final SF 4 – LAD 10
← MLB / Sep 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF002110000482
LAD1111330010150
Team box
SF·LAD
8
hits
15
1
home runs
1
3
walks
5
11
strikeouts
4
170
pitches thrown
152
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Will SmithLAD3-5212
Mookie BettsLAD4-4202
Victor BericotoSF2-4212
Max MuncyLAD2-5101
Tommy EdmanLAD1-4002
Josue De PaulaLAD1-3202
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yunior Marte (L)SF4.28632
Tarik Skubal (W)LAD5.08423

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +6
SF +6
123456789
largest lead: LAD 6 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 36%, LAD 64% · Updated Sep 19

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.2 – 3.7 SF
Expected total
8.9
GiantsThe matchupDodgers
+176Our fair odds−176
3.7Expected runs5.2
−0.15Power rating+0.34
4.2Runs / game5.0
4.7Allowed / game3.8
8.4Hits / game8.6
1.14Home runs / game1.27
2.8Walks drawn / game3.9
64−90Season record94−60
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · LAD chance
Our model fair36.2%63.8%
Kalshi24.2%79.2%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+17636%+31324.2%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−17664%−38179.2%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← SF wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFYunior Marte SP · last 1 start: 4.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 3 Kstarted
LADTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·LAD
Sep 18 at LAD
last game
Sep 18 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 154+ games
SF·LAD
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
4.2
runs / game
5.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
3.8
64−90
season record
94−60
36−39
home record
48−28
28−51
away record
46−32
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
8.6
1.14
home runs / game
1.27
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.66
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

SF · LAD · 175 days
San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
Sep 18at LADLAD 8 − 2
May 14at LADLAD 5 − 2
May 13at LADLAD 4 − 0
May 12at LADSF 6 − 2
May 11at LADSF 9 − 3
Apr 23at SFLAD 3 − 0
Apr 22at SFSF 3 − 0
Apr 21at SFSF 3 − 1
Sep 21, 2025at LADSF 3 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 5

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 18at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16at STL6 − 5W
Sep 15at STL10 − 3W
Sep 14at STL1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SD4 − 6L
Sep 12vs SD6 − 7L
Sep 11vs SD5 − 7L
Sep 9vs STL7 − 6W
Sep 8vs STL2 − 1W
Sep 7vs STL5 − 4W

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 18vs SF8 − 2W
Sep 17at CIN8 − 2W
Sep 16at CIN2 − 6L
Sep 15at CIN4 − 0W
Sep 14at CIN4 − 1W
Sep 13at MIA4 − 6L
Sep 12at MIA3 − 4L
Sep 11at MIA6 − 2W
Sep 9vs CIN14 − 1W
Sep 8vs CIN3 − 2W