bayesRatings

Cubs at Padres

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 30 · 9:00 PM CT · Petco Park · Final CHC 1 – SD 4
← MLB / Sep 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000100000150
SD02020000480
Team box
CHC·SD
5
hits
8
0
home runs
1
3
walks
1
8
strikeouts
6
140
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gavin SheetsSD1-1112
Nico HoernerCHC2-4001
Xander BogaertsSD2-4101
Ty FranceSD2-4100
Jackson MerrillSD2-3100
Tyrone TaylorCHC1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kevin Gausman (L)CHC3.15301
Nick PivettaSD3.13124
Bradgley Rodriguez (W)SD1.20012
Mason Miller (S)SD1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
CHC +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 3 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 49%, SD 51% · Updated Sep 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.4 – 4.2 SD
Expected total
8.6
CubsThe matchupPadres
+103Our fair odds−103
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.23Power rating+0.18
5.2Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game4.2
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.36Home runs / game1.13
4.2Walks drawn / game3.4
89−73 · 0−1 postSeason record91−71 · 1−0 post
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · SD chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+10349%+11945.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−10351%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs−0.2our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 17%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins bySD wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more38%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more28%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.87 ERA, 19 Kstarted
SDNick Pivetta SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 1.98 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·SD
Sep 29 at SD
last game
Sep 29 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
CHC·SD
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
5.2
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.2
89−73 · 0−1 post
season record
91−71 · 1−0 post
46−35
home record
51−30
43−38
away record
40−41
L1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
8−2
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.36
home runs / game
1.13
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.38
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

CHC · SD · 185 days
Chicago CubsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 3−7
Sep 29at SDSD 8 − 0post
Jul 1at CHCCHC 23 − 3
Jun 30at CHCCHC 9 − 7
Jun 29at CHCCHC 3 − 2
Apr 29at SDCHC 5 − 4
Apr 28at SDCHC 8 − 3
Apr 27at SDSD 9 − 7
Oct 2, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post
Oct 1, 2025at CHCSD 3 − 0post
Sep 30, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 29at SD0 − 8L
Sep 27at BOS6 − 2W
Sep 25at BOS0 − 2L
Sep 25at BOS3 − 4L
Sep 24vs MIA2 − 1W
Sep 23vs MIA2 − 3L
Sep 22vs MIA2 − 8L
Sep 20at CIN9 − 1W
Sep 19at CIN5 − 2W
Sep 18at CIN4 − 6L

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Sep 29vs CHC8 − 0W
Sep 27vs ARI9 − 4W
Sep 26vs ARI10 − 7W
Sep 25vs ARI4 − 11L
Sep 24at LAD4 − 2W
Sep 23at LAD5 − 1W
Sep 22at LAD0 − 7L
Sep 20vs MIA7 − 3W
Sep 19vs MIA7 − 6W
Sep 18vs MIA8 − 2W