bayesRatings

Cubs at Padres

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 29 · 9:00 PM CT · Petco Park · Final CHC 0 – SD 8
← MLB / Sep 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000000000031
SD201130108131
Team box
CHC·SD
3
hits
13
0
home runs
3
4
walks
2
11
strikeouts
7
132
pitches thrown
130
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD2-3212
Xander BogaertsSD2-4111
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-3311
Jackson MerrillSD2-4002
Nico HoernerCHC2-4000
Ty FranceSD2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Boyd (L)CHC4.05414
Michael King (W)SD7.01038

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +8
CHC +8
123456789
largest lead: SD 8 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 50%, SD 50% · Updated Sep 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.5 – 4.1 SD
Expected total
8.6
CubsThe matchupPadres
−100Our fair odds+100
4.5Expected runs4.1
+0.25Power rating+0.17
5.2Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game4.2
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.36Home runs / game1.13
4.2Walks drawn / game3.4
89−73Season record91−71
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · SD chance
Our model fair50.1%49.9%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−10050%+11945.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres+10050%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs−0.4our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 18%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins bySD wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more40%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more29%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 10 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·SD
Sep 27 at BOS
last game
Sep 27 vs ARI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
CHC·SD
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
5.2
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.2
89−73
season record
91−71
46−35
home record
51−30
43−38
away record
40−41
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.36
home runs / game
1.13
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.38
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

CHC · SD · 184 days
Chicago CubsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 3−7
Jul 1at CHCCHC 23 − 3
Jun 30at CHCCHC 9 − 7
Jun 29at CHCCHC 3 − 2
Apr 29at SDCHC 5 − 4
Apr 28at SDCHC 8 − 3
Apr 27at SDSD 9 − 7
Oct 2, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post
Oct 1, 2025at CHCSD 3 − 0post
Sep 30, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post
Apr 16, 2025at SDSD 4 − 2

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 27at BOS6 − 2W
Sep 25at BOS0 − 2L
Sep 25at BOS3 − 4L
Sep 24vs MIA2 − 1W
Sep 23vs MIA2 − 3L
Sep 22vs MIA2 − 8L
Sep 20at CIN9 − 1W
Sep 19at CIN5 − 2W
Sep 18at CIN4 − 6L
Sep 16vs ATL8 − 4W

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 27vs ARI9 − 4W
Sep 26vs ARI10 − 7W
Sep 25vs ARI4 − 11L
Sep 24at LAD4 − 2W
Sep 23at LAD5 − 1W
Sep 22at LAD0 − 7L
Sep 20vs MIA7 − 3W
Sep 19vs MIA7 − 6W
Sep 18vs MIA8 − 2W
Sep 17at COL9 − 2W