bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Padres

MLB · Friday, Sep 25 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final ARI 11 – SD 4
← MLB / Sep 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI3121031001180
SD0200001104100
Team box
ARI·SD
8
hits
10
3
home runs
0
8
walks
2
4
strikeouts
7
125
pitches thrown
165
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-3204
Nolan ArenadoARI1-3212
Lars NootbaarARI1-3311
Jordan LawlarARI1-4111
Gabriel MorenoARI2-3201
Jake CronenworthSD1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Pfaadt (W)ARI7.29427
Casey Mize (L)SD4.07721

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +9
ARI +9
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · ARI 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 45%, SD 55% · Updated Sep 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.4 – 4.0 ARI
Expected total
8.4
DiamondbacksThe matchupPadres
+120Our fair odds−120
4.0Expected runs4.4
+0.06Power rating+0.16
4.5Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.1
8.3Hits / game8.1
1.02Home runs / game1.13
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
85−74Season record89−70
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SD chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+12045%−11252.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−12055%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.4our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more39%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more28%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIBrandon Pfaadt SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SDCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SD
Sep 24 at COL
last game
Sep 24 at LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 159+ games
ARI·SD
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.5
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
85−74
season record
89−70
45−36
home record
49−29
40−38
away record
40−41
W5
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
8−2
8.3
hits / game
8.1
1.02
home runs / game
1.13
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.40
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

ARI · SD · 181 days
Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 5−5
Aug 6at ARISD 5 − 1
Aug 5at ARIARI 10 − 4
Aug 4at ARISD 9 − 4
Aug 3at ARIARI 5 − 1
Jul 9at SDARI 3 − 1
Jul 8at SDSD 10 − 4
Jul 7at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 6at SDARI 8 − 0
Apr 26at ARIARI 12 − 7
Apr 25at ARISD 6 − 4

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Sep 24at COL12 − 8W
Sep 23at COL5 − 3W
Sep 22at COL7 − 2W
Sep 20vs NYY8 − 4W
Sep 19vs NYY5 − 3W
Sep 18vs NYY2 − 9L
Sep 16vs MIA3 − 4L
Sep 15vs MIA2 − 4L
Sep 14vs MIA8 − 7W
Sep 13vs TEX6 − 7L

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 24at LAD4 − 2W
Sep 23at LAD5 − 1W
Sep 22at LAD0 − 7L
Sep 20vs MIA7 − 3W
Sep 19vs MIA7 − 6W
Sep 18vs MIA8 − 2W
Sep 17at COL9 − 2W
Sep 16at COL9 − 3W
Sep 15at COL3 − 9L
Sep 14at COL8 − 7W