bayesRatings

Padres at Brewers

MLB · Sunday, Oct 4 · 3:00 PM CT · American Family Field · Final SD 3 – MIL 4
← MLB / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD100010100352
MIL000010102453
Team box
SD·MIL
5
hits
5
0
home runs
0
5
walks
4
7
strikeouts
8
152
pitches thrown
134
2
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ty FranceSD2-3002
Jackson ChourioMIL1-4002
Sal FrelickMIL1-2101
Christian YelichMIL1-3200
Garrett MitchellMIL1-4100
Cooper PrattMIL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael KingSD5.03106
Mason Miller (L)SD1.21232
Logan HendersonMIL5.02134
Trevor Megill (W)MIL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · SD 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 41%, MIL 59% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
MIL by 1.0
Expected score
MIL 4.9 – 3.9 SD
Expected total
8.8
PadresThe matchupBrewers
+144Our fair odds−144
3.9Expected runs4.9
+0.19Power rating+0.47
4.5Runs / game5.1
4.2Allowed / game3.8
8.1Hits / game8.8
1.13Home runs / game0.95
3.4Walks drawn / game4.1
91−71 · 2−1 postSeason record103−59 · 1−0 post
7−3Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · MIL chance
Our model fair41.0%59.0%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+14441%+11446.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14459%−13757.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.0
SDSan Diego Padres+1our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.0 expected
San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← SD wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more44%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more34%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 19 Kstarted
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 2.40 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·MIL
Oct 3 at MIL
last game
Oct 3 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
SD·MIL
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.47
4.5
runs / game
5.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.8
91−71 · 2−1 post
season record
103−59 · 1−0 post
51−30
home record
55−26
40−41
away record
48−33
L1
streak
W6
7−3
last 10
9−1
8.1
hits / game
8.8
1.13
home runs / game
0.95
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.40
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

SD · MIL · 188 days
San Diego PadresMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 4−6
Oct 3at MILMIL 3 − 2post
Aug 12at SDSD 4 − 3
Aug 11at SDSD 11 − 2
Aug 10at SDSD 3 − 2
May 14at MILMIL 7 − 1
May 13at MILSD 3 − 1
May 12at MILMIL 6 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at SDMIL 3 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at SDSD 7 − 0
Sep 22, 2025at SDSD 5 − 4

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 3at MIL2 − 3L
Sep 30vs CHC4 − 1W
Sep 29vs CHC8 − 0W
Sep 27vs ARI9 − 4W
Sep 26vs ARI10 − 7W
Sep 25vs ARI4 − 11L
Sep 24at LAD4 − 2W
Sep 23at LAD5 − 1W
Sep 22at LAD0 − 7L
Sep 20vs MIA7 − 3W

MIL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Oct 3vs SD3 − 2W
Sep 27vs STL6 − 4W
Sep 26vs STL3 − 2W
Sep 25vs STL8 − 4W
Sep 24at PHI5 − 1W
Sep 23at PHI4 − 1W
Sep 22at PHI4 − 6L
Sep 20at BAL3 − 0W
Sep 19at BAL1 − 0W
Sep 18at BAL6 − 5W