bayesRatings

Cardinals at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, Sep 26 · 6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final STL 2 – MIL 3
← MLB / Sep 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL011000000231
MIL00102000380
Team box
STL·MIL
3
hits
8
1
home runs
1
1
walks
5
15
strikeouts
11
141
pitches thrown
144
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL1-3112
Alec BurlesonSTL1-4111
Jackson ChourioMIL2-4101
Thomas SaggeseSTL1-3001
William ContrerasMIL1-3000
Brandon LockridgeMIL1-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Quinn Mathews (L)STL5.05327
Dustin MayMIL3.03215
Kyle Harrison (W)MIL2.00004
Aaron Ashby (S)MIL2.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · STL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 36%, MIL 64% · Updated Sep 26

Expected margin
MIL by 1.6
Expected score
MIL 5.4 – 3.8 STL
Expected total
9.2
CardinalsThe matchupBrewers
+181Our fair odds−181
3.8Expected runs5.4
−0.06Power rating+0.45
4.5Runs / game5.1
4.6Allowed / game3.8
8.1Hits / game8.8
1.03Home runs / game0.95
3.2Walks drawn / game4.1
77−83Season record101−59
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · MIL chance
Our model fair35.5%64.5%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+18136%+13442.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−18164%−16161.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.6
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.6our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.6 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 16 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%
← STL wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more49%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more39%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLQuinn Mathews SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MILDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 4.35 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·MIL
Sep 25 at MIL
last game
Sep 25 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 160+ games
STL·MIL
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.45
4.5
runs / game
5.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.8
77−83
season record
101−59
38−43
home record
53−26
39−40
away record
48−33
L2
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
8−2
8.1
hits / game
8.8
1.03
home runs / game
0.95
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.49
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

STL · MIL · 182 days
St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 9−1
Sep 25at MILMIL 8 − 4
Jul 9at STLMIL 8 − 4
Jul 8at STLSTL 5 − 1
Jul 7at STLMIL 10 − 2
Jul 7at STLMIL 4 − 3
Jul 6at STLMIL 4 − 3
May 27at MILMIL 2 − 1
May 26at MILMIL 6 − 0
May 25at MILMIL 5 − 1
May 6at STLMIL 6 − 2

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Sep 25at MIL4 − 8L
Sep 24at PIT1 − 2L
Sep 23at PIT5 − 1W
Sep 22at PIT0 − 2L
Sep 20vs WSH5 − 3W
Sep 19vs WSH5 − 8L
Sep 18vs WSH1 − 9L
Sep 16vs SF5 − 6L
Sep 15vs SF3 − 10L
Sep 14vs SF2 − 1W

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Sep 25vs STL8 − 4W
Sep 24at PHI5 − 1W
Sep 23at PHI4 − 1W
Sep 22at PHI4 − 6L
Sep 20at BAL3 − 0W
Sep 19at BAL1 − 0W
Sep 18at BAL6 − 5W
Sep 17at PIT4 − 7L
Sep 16at PIT5 − 4W
Sep 15at PIT5 − 1W