bayesRatings

Nationals at Cardinals

MLB · Sunday, Sep 20 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final WSH 3 – STL 5
← MLB / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH010002000371
STL10100003560
Team box
WSH·STL
7
hits
6
1
home runs
3
2
walks
2
5
strikeouts
8
155
pitches thrown
114
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ivan HerreraSTL2-4222
Leo BernalSTL1-3112
CJ AbramsWSH1-4112
Jose FerminSTL2-3100
JJ WetherholtSTL1-4001
Jacob YoungWSH1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jake IrvinWSH5.13208
Yovanny Cruz (L)WSH0.11210
Quinn MathewsSTL7.07323
Luis Gastelum (W)STL1.00002
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 2 · WSH 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 47%, STL 53% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 4.8 – 4.8 STL
Expected total
9.6
NationalsThe matchupCardinals
+112Our fair odds−112
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.09Power rating−0.06
5.1Runs / game4.5
5.0Allowed / game4.7
8.4Hits / game8.2
1.30Home runs / game1.02
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
73−82Season record75−80
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · STL chance
Our model fair47.1%52.9%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11247%+10947.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11253%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals−0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins bySTL wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more38%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more29%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 14 Kstarted
STLQuinn Mathews SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·STL
Sep 19 at STL
last game
Sep 19 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 155+ games
WSH·STL
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.1
runs / game
4.5
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.7
73−82
season record
75−80
37−41
home record
37−43
36−41
away record
38−37
W2
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
8.2
1.30
home runs / game
1.02
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.66
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

WSH · STL · 176 days
Washington NationalsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 6−4
Sep 19at STLWSH 8 − 5
Sep 18at STLWSH 9 − 1
Apr 8at WSHSTL 6 − 1
Apr 7at WSHSTL 7 − 6
Apr 6at WSHWSH 9 − 6
Jul 10, 2025at STLSTL 8 − 1
Jul 9, 2025at STLWSH 8 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 2
May 11, 2025at WSHSTL 6 − 1
May 10, 2025at WSHSTL 4 − 2

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 19at STL8 − 5W
Sep 18at STL9 − 1W
Sep 16vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 15vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 13vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 12vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 11vs LAA4 − 3W
Sep 9at SD2 − 9L
Sep 8at SD4 − 5L
Sep 7at SD2 − 3L

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Sep 19vs WSH5 − 8L
Sep 18vs WSH1 − 9L
Sep 16vs SF5 − 6L
Sep 15vs SF3 − 10L
Sep 14vs SF2 − 1W
Sep 13vs CHW3 − 1W
Sep 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Sep 11vs CHW7 − 3W
Sep 9at SF6 − 7L
Sep 8at SF1 − 2L