bayesRatings

Nationals at Cardinals

MLB · Saturday, Sep 19 · 6:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final WSH 8 – STL 5
← MLB / Sep 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
WSH200001000148114
STL000000201115143
Team box
WSH·STL
11
hits
14
1
home runs
0
4
walks
2
8
strikeouts
13
187
pitches thrown
222
4
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jorbit VivasWSH4-6101
Daylen LileWSH1-6112
Jose FerminSTL3-5001
Ivan HerreraSTL3-5000
Pedro PagesSTL2-4101
Jose TenaWSH1-2102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AlvarezWSH6.05018
Riley Cornelio (W)WSH1.23012
Will Dion (S)WSH0.10000
Michael McGreevySTL4.05211
Gordon Graceffo (L)STL1.02221

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +4
WSH +4
1234567891011
largest lead: STL 0 · WSH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 47%, STL 53% · Updated Sep 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.8 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
9.5
NationalsThe matchupCardinals
+113Our fair odds−113
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.10Power rating−0.05
5.1Runs / game4.5
5.0Allowed / game4.6
8.4Hits / game8.2
1.31Home runs / game1.03
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
72−82Season record75−79
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · STL chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11347%−11252.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11353%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington NationalsPKour margin————
STLSt. Louis CardinalsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more36%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more27%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 19 Kstarted
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·STL
Sep 18 at STL
last game
Sep 18 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 154+ games
WSH·STL
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
5.1
runs / game
4.5
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.6
72−82
season record
75−79
37−41
home record
37−42
35−41
away record
38−37
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.4
hits / game
8.2
1.31
home runs / game
1.03
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.64
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

WSH · STL · 175 days
Washington NationalsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 7−3
Sep 18at STLWSH 9 − 1
Apr 8at WSHSTL 6 − 1
Apr 7at WSHSTL 7 − 6
Apr 6at WSHWSH 9 − 6
Jul 10, 2025at STLSTL 8 − 1
Jul 9, 2025at STLWSH 8 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 2
May 11, 2025at WSHSTL 6 − 1
May 10, 2025at WSHSTL 4 − 2
May 9, 2025at WSHSTL 10 − 0

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 18at STL9 − 1W
Sep 16vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 15vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 13vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 12vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 11vs LAA4 − 3W
Sep 9at SD2 − 9L
Sep 8at SD4 − 5L
Sep 7at SD2 − 3L
Sep 6at LAD5 − 7L

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 18vs WSH1 − 9L
Sep 16vs SF5 − 6L
Sep 15vs SF3 − 10L
Sep 14vs SF2 − 1W
Sep 13vs CHW3 − 1W
Sep 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Sep 11vs CHW7 − 3W
Sep 9at SF6 − 7L
Sep 8at SF1 − 2L
Sep 7at SF4 − 5L