bayesRatings

Nationals at Cardinals

MLB · Friday, Sep 18 · 7:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final WSH 9 – STL 1
← MLB / Sep 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH304101000970
STL000000010173
Team box
WSH·STL
7
hits
7
1
home runs
0
6
walks
1
6
strikeouts
9
120
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dylan CrewsWSH2-5212
Leo BernalSTL3-4000
Yohandy MoralesWSH1-4002
Ivan HerreraSTL1-4001
CJ AbramsWSH1-4101
Brady HouseWSH1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH5.04006
Kyle Leahy (L)STL3.05631

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +9
WSH +9
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · WSH 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, STL 54% · Updated Sep 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
Expected total
9.5
NationalsThe matchupCardinals
+116Our fair odds−116
4.7Expected runs4.8
−0.11Power rating−0.04
5.1Runs / game4.5
5.1Allowed / game4.6
8.4Hits / game8.2
1.31Home runs / game1.03
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
71−82Season record75−78
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · STL chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11646%−11252.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11654%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals+0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more37%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more28%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 25 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 8.2 IP, 6.23 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·STL
Sep 16 vs PHI
last game
Sep 16 vs SF
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 153+ games
WSH·STL
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.1
runs / game
4.5
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.6
71−82
season record
75−78
37−41
home record
37−41
34−41
away record
38−37
L1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.2
1.31
home runs / game
1.03
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.64
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

WSH · STL · 174 days
Washington NationalsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 8−2
Apr 8at WSHSTL 6 − 1
Apr 7at WSHSTL 7 − 6
Apr 6at WSHWSH 9 − 6
Jul 10, 2025at STLSTL 8 − 1
Jul 9, 2025at STLWSH 8 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 2
May 11, 2025at WSHSTL 6 − 1
May 10, 2025at WSHSTL 4 − 2
May 9, 2025at WSHSTL 10 − 0
Jul 28, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 3

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 16vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 15vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 13vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 12vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 11vs LAA4 − 3W
Sep 9at SD2 − 9L
Sep 8at SD4 − 5L
Sep 7at SD2 − 3L
Sep 6at LAD5 − 7L
Sep 5at LAD5 − 6L

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 16vs SF5 − 6L
Sep 15vs SF3 − 10L
Sep 14vs SF2 − 1W
Sep 13vs CHW3 − 1W
Sep 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Sep 11vs CHW7 − 3W
Sep 9at SF6 − 7L
Sep 8at SF1 − 2L
Sep 7at SF4 − 5L
Sep 6at COL10 − 8W