bayesRatings

Cardinals at Pirates

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final STL 5 – PIT 1
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL0032000005100
PIT010000000160
Team box
STL·PIT
10
hits
6
0
home runs
1
4
walks
1
10
strikeouts
9
129
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LowePIT2-4111
JJ WetherholtSTL3-4101
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-3000
Jose FerminSTL2-4100
Alec BurlesonSTL1-5101
Masyn WinnSTL1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Liberatore (W)STL5.26106
Lake BacharPIT1.21012
Brandon Eisert (L)PIT0.22311

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: PIT 1 · STL 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 46%, PIT 54% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.7 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
8.9
CardinalsThe matchupPirates
+119Our fair odds−119
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.06Power rating+0.03
4.5Runs / game4.8
4.6Allowed / game4.6
8.1Hits / game8.7
1.03Home runs / game1.15
3.2Walks drawn / game3.5
76−81Season record80−77
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11946%+11945.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−11954%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.4our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more39%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 7 Kstarted
PITLake Bachar RP · last 3 starts: 4.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·PIT
Sep 22 at PIT
last game
Sep 22 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
STL·PIT
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.5
runs / game
4.8
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.6
76−81
season record
80−77
38−43
home record
43−36
38−38
away record
37−41
L1
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.7
1.03
home runs / game
1.15
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.5
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.48
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

STL · PIT · 179 days
St. Louis CardinalsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Sep 22at PITPIT 2 − 0
Aug 30at STLPIT 5 − 4
Aug 29at STLPIT 6 − 2
Aug 28at STLSTL 4 − 1
May 21at STLPIT 6 − 2
May 20at STLPIT 7 − 0
May 19at STLSTL 9 − 6
Apr 30at PITSTL 10 − 5
Apr 29at PITSTL 5 − 4
Apr 28at PITSTL 11 − 7

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 22at PIT0 − 2L
Sep 20vs WSH5 − 3W
Sep 19vs WSH5 − 8L
Sep 18vs WSH1 − 9L
Sep 16vs SF5 − 6L
Sep 15vs SF3 − 10L
Sep 14vs SF2 − 1W
Sep 13vs CHW3 − 1W
Sep 12vs CHW5 − 6L
Sep 11vs CHW7 − 3W

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Sep 22vs STL2 − 0W
Sep 20vs KC4 − 3W
Sep 19vs KC6 − 5W
Sep 18vs KC8 − 5W
Sep 17vs MIL7 − 4W
Sep 16vs MIL4 − 5L
Sep 15vs MIL1 − 5L
Sep 13at CHC4 − 3W
Sep 12at CHC3 − 4L
Sep 11at CHC2 − 12L