bayesRatings

Browns at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 12:00 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final CLE 9 – PIT 23
← NFL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE03339
PIT367723
Team box
CLE·PIT
248
total yards
335
183
passing yards
235
65
rushing yards
100
20
first downs
19
6-17
third downs
5-13
0
turnovers
0
28:08
time of possession
31:52
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dillon GabrielCLE29/5222100
Aaron RodgersPIT21/3023520
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Quinshon JudkinsCLE12360
Jaylen WarrenPIT11520
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Harold Fannin Jr.CLE7810
DK MetcalfPIT4951

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +17
CLE +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 17 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 26%, PIT 74% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
PIT by 12.0
Expected score
PIT 25.6 – 13.6 CLE
Expected total
39.2
BrownsThe matchupSteelers
+287Our fair odds−287
13.6Expected points25.6
−0.75Power rating+0.09
14.6Points / game24.0
24.6Allowed / game24.5
288Total yards / game264
4.3Yards / play4.9
193Passing yards / game184
1−4Season record3−1
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · PIT chance
Our model fair25.9%74.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+28726%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers−28774%————
SpreadPIT by 12.0
CLECleveland Browns+12our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers−12our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.2
Over39.2our total————
Under39.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 12.0 expected
Cleveland Browns by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 5%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 6%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 41 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 42 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 43 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 44 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 45 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 46 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 47 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 48 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 49 points: <1%
← CLE wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more75%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more61%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more52%
Within 3 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.2 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.547%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CLEDillon Gabriel · last 3 games: 59% completions, 70 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 67% completions, 181 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·PIT
Oct 5, 2025 vs MIN
last game
Sep 28, 2025 vs MIN
6 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
CLE·PIT
−0.75
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
14.6
points / game
24.0
24.6
points allowed / game
24.5
1−4
season record
3−1
1−2
home record
1−1
0−2
away record
2−0
L2
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
4−6
288
total yards / game
264
4.3
yards / play
4.9
193
passing yards / game
184
96
rushing yards / game
80
17.4
first downs / game
17.0
1.6
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

CLE · PIT · 14 days
Cleveland BrownsPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PIT 5−3
Dec 8, 2024at PITPIT 27 − 14
Nov 21, 2024at CLECLE 24 − 19
Nov 19, 2023at CLECLE 13 − 10
Sep 18, 2023at PITPIT 26 − 22
Jan 8, 2023at PITPIT 28 − 14
Sep 22, 2022at CLECLE 29 − 17
Jan 3, 2022at PITPIT 26 − 14
Oct 31, 2021at CLEPIT 15 − 10

CLE · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Oct 5, 2025vs MIN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at DET10 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs GB13 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at BAL17 − 41L
Sep 7, 2025vs CIN16 − 17L
Jan 4, 2025at BAL10 − 35L
Dec 29, 2024vs MIA3 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at CIN6 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024vs KC7 − 21L
Dec 8, 2024at PIT14 − 27L

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN24 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025at NE21 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025vs SEA17 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 32W
Jan 11, 2025at BAL14 − 28L
Jan 4, 2025vs CIN17 − 19L
Dec 25, 2024vs KC10 − 29L
Dec 21, 2024at BAL17 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024at PHI13 − 27L
Dec 8, 2024vs CLE27 − 14W