bayesRatings

Bills at Falcons

NFL · Monday, Oct 13 · 6:15 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final BUF 14 – ATL 24
← NFL / Oct 13, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BUF707014
ATL1470324
Team box
BUF·ATL
291
total yards
443
157
passing yards
233
134
rushing yards
210
17
first downs
22
2-9
third downs
5-12
2
turnovers
0
28:21
time of possession
31:39
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF15/2618022
Michael Penix Jr.ATL20/3225010
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF17870
Bijan RobinsonATL191701
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Joshua PalmerBUF2600
Drake LondonATL101581

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +14
BUF +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 14 · BUF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 61%, ATL 39% · Updated Oct 13, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 7.2
Expected score
BUF 28.1 – 20.8 ATL
Expected total
48.9
BillsThe matchupFalcons
−158Our fair odds+158
28.1Expected points20.8
+0.64Power rating−0.14
30.6Points / game19.0
22.6Allowed / game21.5
396Total yards / game363
6.1Yards / play5.5
241Passing yards / game226
4−1Season record2−2
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · ATL chance
Our model fair61.2%38.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−15861%————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+15839%————
SpreadBUF by 7.2
BUFBuffalo Bills−7.2our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.9
Over48.9our total————
Under48.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 7.2 expected
Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 8%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 5%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%
← BUF wins byATL wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more66%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more49%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more41%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.9 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.568%
Total over 48.548%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 74% completions, 225 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 61% completions, 207 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·ATL
Oct 5, 2025 vs NE
last game
Sep 28, 2025 vs WSH
7 days
days of rest
14 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
BUF·ATL
+0.64
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
30.6
points / game
19.0
22.6
points allowed / game
21.5
4−1
season record
2−2
3−1
home record
1−1
1−0
away record
1−1
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
396
total yards / game
363
6.1
yards / play
5.5
241
passing yards / game
226
154
rushing yards / game
136
24.4
first downs / game
20.8
0.8
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

BUF · ATL · 15 days
Buffalo BillsAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · ATL 0−1
Jan 2, 2022at BUFBUF 29 − 15

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 5, 2025vs NE20 − 23L
Sep 28, 2025vs NO31 − 19W
Sep 18, 2025vs MIA31 − 21W
Sep 14, 2025at NYJ30 − 10W
Sep 7, 2025vs BAL41 − 40W
Jan 26, 2025at KC29 − 32L
Jan 19, 2025vs BAL27 − 25W
Jan 12, 2025vs DEN31 − 7W
Jan 5, 2025at NE16 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024vs NYJ40 − 14W

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 28, 2025vs WSH34 − 27W
Sep 21, 2025at CAR0 − 30L
Sep 14, 2025at MIN22 − 6W
Sep 7, 2025vs TB20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs CAR38 − 44L
Dec 29, 2024at WSH24 − 30L
Dec 22, 2024vs NYG34 − 7W
Dec 16, 2024at LV15 − 9W
Dec 8, 2024at MIN21 − 42L
Dec 1, 2024vs LAC13 − 17L