bayesRatings

Bears at Commanders

NFL · Monday, Oct 13 · 7:15 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · Final CHI 25 – WSH 24
← NFL / Oct 13, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI673925
WSH0710724
Team box
CHI·WSH
386
total yards
329
236
passing yards
205
150
rushing yards
124
19
first downs
22
3-10
third downs
3-8
0
turnovers
3
28:26
time of possession
31:34
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Caleb WilliamsCHI17/2925210
Jayden DanielsWSH19/2621131
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
D'Andre SwiftCHI141080
Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH17610
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
D'Andre SwiftCHI2671
Chris MooreWSH3461

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +13
CHI +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 8 · CHI 13lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 33%, WSH 67% · Updated Oct 13, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 8.4
Expected score
WSH 29.9 – 21.5 CHI
Expected total
51.4
BearsThe matchupCommanders
+202Our fair odds−202
21.5Expected points29.9
−0.17Power rating+0.28
25.2Points / game26.8
29.2Allowed / game20.2
328Total yards / game349
5.3Yards / play6.1
226Passing yards / game193
2−2Season record3−2
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · WSH chance
Our model fair33.1%66.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears+20233%————
WSHWashington Commanders−20267%————
SpreadWSH by 8.4
CHIChicago Bears+8.4our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders−8.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 51.4
Over51.4our total————
Under51.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Commanders by 8.4 expected
Chicago Bears by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 9 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 6%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 7%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 22 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 25 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 32 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 41 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 42 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 43 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 44 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 45 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 46 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 47 points: <1%
← CHI wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Commanders wins by 3 or more66%
Washington Commanders wins by 7 or more51%
Washington Commanders wins by 10 or more43%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

51.4 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 44.565%
Total over 51.547%
Total over 58.531%
Total from 45 to 5835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 63% completions, 239 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 59% completions, 221 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·WSH
Sep 28, 2025 at LV
last game
Oct 5, 2025 at LAC
14 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
CHI·WSH
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
25.2
points / game
26.8
29.2
points allowed / game
20.2
2−2
season record
3−2
1−1
home record
2−0
1−1
away record
1−2
W2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
7−3
328
total yards / game
349
5.3
yards / play
6.1
226
passing yards / game
193
102
rushing yards / game
156
18.5
first downs / game
19.2
1.0
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

CHI · WSH · 15 days
Chicago BearsWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · WSH 2−1
Oct 27, 2024at WSHWSH 18 − 15
Oct 5, 2023at WSHCHI 40 − 20
Oct 13, 2022at CHIWSH 12 − 7

CHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Sep 28, 2025at LV25 − 24W
Sep 21, 2025vs DAL31 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025at DET21 − 52L
Sep 8, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at GB24 − 22W
Dec 26, 2024vs SEA3 − 6L
Dec 22, 2024vs DET17 − 34L
Dec 16, 2024at MIN12 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at SF13 − 38L
Nov 28, 2024at DET20 − 23L

WSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 5, 2025at LAC27 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025at ATL27 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs LV41 − 24W
Sep 11, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025vs NYG21 − 6W
Jan 26, 2025at PHI23 − 55L
Jan 18, 2025at DET45 − 31W
Jan 12, 2025at TB23 − 20W
Jan 5, 2025at DAL23 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs ATL30 − 24W