bayesRatings

Rangers at Penguins

NHL · Saturday, Jan 31 · 2:30 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · Final NYR 5 – PIT 6
← NHL / Jan 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR0145
PIT2136
Team box
NYR·PIT
20
shots
34
1 of 3
power play
1 of 5
60.9
faceoff %
39.1
26
hits
16
10
blocked shots
12
12
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Alexis LafreniereNYR214
Vincent TrocheckNYR121
Anthony ManthaPIT202
Noel AcciariPIT202
Rickard RakellPIT115
Vladislav GavrikovNYR111
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jonathan QuickNYR3328.848
Stuart SkinnerPIT2015.750

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
NYR +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: PIT 4 · NYR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 43%, PIT 57% · Updated Jan 31

Expected margin
PIT by 0.5
Expected score
PIT 3.4 – 2.9 NYR
Expected total
6.3
RangersThe matchupPenguins
+135Our fair odds−135
2.9Expected goals3.4
−0.13Power rating+0.02
2.7Goals / game3.4
3.1Allowed / game3.0
25.7Shots / game29.0
54.6Faceoff %50.7
26.3Hits / game17.3
22−33Season record27−25
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · PIT chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+13543%————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−13557%————
SpreadPIT by 0.5
NYRNew York Rangers+0.5our margin————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Penguins by 0.5 expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 4%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 8%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 20%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 21%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 11%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 14%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 8%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 3%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: 1%
← NYR wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more36%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 3 or more25%
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRJonathan Quick G · last 5 starts: .846 save %, 4.00 GAAstarted
PITStuart Skinner G · last 5 starts: .921 save %, 2.01 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·PIT
Jan 29 vs NYI
last game
Jan 29 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
NYR·PIT
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
2.7
goals / game
3.4
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.0
22−33
season record
27−25
6−18
home record
12−14
16−15
away record
15−11
L2
streak
W5
2−8
last 10
6−4
25.7
shots / game
29.0
54.6
faceoff %
50.7
26.3
hits / game
17.3
15.1
blocked shots / game
15.0
4.5
takeaways / game
4.8
14.8
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

NYR · PIT · 106 days
New York RangersPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 3−7
Oct 11, 2025at PITNYR 6 − 1
Oct 7, 2025at NYRPIT 3 − 0
Feb 23, 2025at PITNYR 5 − 3
Feb 7, 2025at NYRPIT 3 − 2
Dec 6, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 2
Oct 9, 2024at PITNYR 6 − 0
Apr 1, 2024at NYRPIT 5 − 2
Mar 16, 2024at PITNYR 7 − 4
Nov 22, 2023at PITNYR 1 − 0
Mar 18, 2023at NYRNYR 6 − 0

NYR · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Jan 29vs NYI1 − 2L
Jan 28at NYI2 − 5L
Jan 26vs BOS4 − 3W
Jan 23at SJ1 − 3L
Jan 20at LA3 − 4L
Jan 19at ANA3 − 5L
Jan 17at PHI6 − 3W
Jan 14vs OTT4 − 8L
Jan 12vs SEA2 − 4L
Jan 10at BOS2 − 10L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Jan 29vs CHI6 − 2W
Jan 25at VAN3 − 2W
Jan 22at EDM6 − 2W
Jan 21at CGY4 − 1W
Jan 19at SEA6 − 3W
Jan 17vs CBJ3 − 4L
Jan 15vs PHI6 − 3W
Jan 13vs TB1 − 2L
Jan 11at BOS0 − 1L
Jan 10vs CGY1 − 2L