Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31
Elmer Soderblom LW · Ryan Graves D
Trevor van Riemsdyk DOutMike Matheson D · Nick Suzuki C
Ivan Demidov RW · Sam Montembeault G
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshi4:22 PM CT | Polymarket US4:22 PM CT | ProphetX4:21 PM CT | Novig4:20 PM CT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| PITPittsburgh Penguins | +13043% | +10548.7% | +10548.7% | +10947.8% | +11347.0% |
| MTLMontreal Canadiens | −13057% | −12655.7% | −12655.7% | −12054.6% | −11754.0% |
| Spreadabout even | |||||
| PITPittsburgh Penguins | +0.3our margin | +1.5 −22869.5% | +1.5 −22869.5% | +1.5 −22769.4% | +1.5 −21368.0% |
| MTLMontreal Canadiens | −0.3our margin | −1.5 +18934.5% | −1.5 +19034.5% | −1.5 +20233.1% | −1.5 +20333.0% |
| Totalwe expect 6.6 | |||||
| Over | 6.6our total | o6.5 −12154.7% | o6.5 −11653.7% | o6.5 −11252.9% | o6.5 −11152.5% |
| Under | 6.6our total | u6.5 +10149.7% | u6.5 −10350.7% | u6.5 +10349.3% | u6.5 +10848.0% |
Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Even game expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.
Total range
6.6 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.
Probable Starting Goalies
as announcedStarting goalies are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.
Who's Out
Current team injury listsFor context, not in our forecast.