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Flames at Kraken

NHL · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 9:00 PM CT · Climate Pledge Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
SEA by 0.5
Expected score
SEA 3.3 – 2.8 CGY
Expected total
6.1
FlamesThe matchupKraken
+129Our fair odds−129
2.8Expected goals3.3
−0.26Power rating−0.11
2.3Goals / game3.8
3.8Allowed / game3.5
28.8Shots / game25.3
49.5Faceoff %52.0
22.7Hits / game16.9
5−7Season record8−5
5−5Last 106−4
Brennan Othmann LW · Devin Cooley G
Jonathan Huberdeau LW · Samuel Honzek LWOutJacob Melanson RW · Jared McCann LW
Ryan Lindgren D

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CGY chance · SEA chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi46.7%60.7%
Polymarket US47.7%62.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi5:12 AM CTPolymarket US5:12 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CGYCalgary Flames+12944%+11446.7%+11047.7%——
SEASeattle Kraken−12956%−15460.7%−16862.7%——
SpreadSEA by 0.5
CGYCalgary Flames+0.5our margin—+2.5 −1063999.1%——
SEASeattle Kraken−0.5our margin—−2.5 +10548.7%——
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total—o7.5 +10149.7%——
Under6.1our total—u7.5 −257996.3%——

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Kraken by 0.5 expected
Calgary Flames by 6 goals: <1%Calgary Flames by 5 goals: 1%Calgary Flames by 4 goals: 4%Calgary Flames by 3 goals: 8%Calgary Flames by 2 goals: 8%Calgary Flames by 1 goal: 23%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 19%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 11%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 14%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 8%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 3%Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: 1%
← CGY wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Kraken wins by 3 or more26%
Calgary Flames wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
CGYDustin Wolf G · last 5 starts: .846 save %, 4.55 GAAexpected
SEAPhilipp Grubauer G · last 5 starts: .888 save %, 3.08 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CGY·SEA
Oct 30 vs SEA
last game
Oct 30 at CGY
4 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Calgary Flames
CGYBrennan Othmann LW · upper bodyOut
CGYDevin Cooley G · lower body, back about Nov 6IR
CGYJonathan Huberdeau LW · hip surgeryIR
CGYSamuel Honzek LW · lower bodyIR
Seattle Kraken
SEAJacob Melanson RW · chest, back about Dec 1IR
SEAJared McCann LW · lower body, back about Jan 2, 2027IR
SEARyan Lindgren D · upper body, back about Nov 19IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
CGY·SEA
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
2.3
goals / game
3.8
3.8
goals allowed / game
3.5
5−7
season record
8−5
4−3
home record
4−2
1−4
away record
4−3
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
28.8
shots / game
25.3
49.5
faceoff %
52.0
22.7
hits / game
16.9
12.9
blocked shots / game
16.5
4.1
takeaways / game
4.7
15.8
giveaways / game
14.9

Rating Trend

CGY · SEA · 31 days
Calgary FlamesSeattle Kraken
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 7−3
Oct 4at SEASEA 6 − 1
Oct 1at CGYSEA 6 − 1
Apr 11at SEASEA 4 − 1
Jan 5at CGYSEA 5 − 1
Dec 18, 2025at CGYCGY 4 − 2
Mar 25, 2025at CGYCGY 4 − 3 OT
Feb 8, 2025at CGYSEA 3 − 2 OT
Feb 2, 2025at SEACGY 3 − 2
Oct 19, 2024at SEASEA 2 − 1 OT
Mar 4, 2024at CGYSEA 4 − 2

CGY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 28at EDM0 − 4L
Oct 26vs TOR5 − 2W
Oct 24vs DET4 − 1W
Oct 22vs MIN2 − 1W
Oct 18vs CAR3 − 2W
Oct 15at VGK2 − 6L
Oct 13at ANA4 − 2W
Oct 10vs ANA2 − 4L
Oct 8vs COL3 − 7L
Oct 4at SEA1 − 6L

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 28vs TOR5 − 4W
Oct 24vs MIN1 − 5L
Oct 22vs UTAH5 − 3W
Oct 20vs DET4 − 3W
Oct 17at FLA3 − 8L
Oct 15at TB3 − 4L
Oct 13at PHI3 − 2W
Oct 11at WSH5 − 3W
Oct 9at DET6 − 3W
Oct 6vs VGK2 − 6L