Final Box Score
from the game summary| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| SEA | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Player | Team | G | A | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McKenna | TOR | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Auston Matthews | TOR | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Chandler Stephenson | SEA | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jack Roslovic | TOR | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Darren Raddysh | TOR | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Matty Beniers | SEA | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Goalie | Team | SA | SV | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | 17 | 12 | .706 |
| Philipp Grubauer | SEA | 21 | 17 | .810 |
For context, not in our forecast.
Game Flow
score marginFor context, not in our forecast.
Final · our forecast was TOR 52%, SEA 48% · Updated Oct 28
Marshall Rifai · Miles Wood
Nick BlankenburgOutJacob Melanson · Jake O'Brien
Jared McCann · Ryan Lindgren
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshipre-game · 9:00 PM CT | Polymarket USpre-game · 8:59 PM CT | ProphetXpre-game · 8:59 PM CT | Novigpre-game · 8:58 PM CT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| TORToronto Maple Leafs | −10852% | −13156.7% | −13156.7% | −12755.9% | −12054.5% |
| SEASeattle Kraken | +10848% | +10947.7% | +11047.7% | +11446.7% | +11746.0% |
| Spreadabout even | |||||
| TORToronto Maple Leafs | −0.2our margin | −1.5 +18135.6% | −1.5 +18135.6% | −1.5 +17836.0% | −1.5 +19034.5% |
| SEASeattle Kraken | +0.2our margin | +1.5 −21868.5% | +1.5 −21868.5% | +1.5 −20266.9% | +1.5 −19966.5% |
| Totalwe expect 6.7 | |||||
| Over | 6.7our total | o6.5 −12655.7% | o6.5 −12655.7% | o6.5 −12154.8% | o6.5 −11754.0% |
| Under | 6.7our total | u6.5 +10548.7% | u6.5 +10548.7% | u6.5 +10947.8% | u6.5 +11347.0% |
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Even game expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.
Total range
6.7 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.
Starting Goalies
from the box scoreStarting goalies are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.
Who's Out
Injury list before the game · Oct 28, 2026, 7:40 PM CTFor context, not in our forecast.